Wednesday, November 17, 2010

All in Sports Fantasy Advice
Week 11 - Football Breakdown and Rankings

Well, I’ve been sick this week and haven’t had much time to work on a decent intro. I still have the important stuff for you, and made sure I got all of that together. There may be a small connection here – sometimes you will have a sickening result in Fantasy whether it’s losing by 0.2 points or scoring the second most in the league and still losing. You know, sometimes you just need the breather to shake it off.

So while I take a small breather, and rest up to get back in the game…you do the same. Good luck in Week 11 and here’s hoping you don’t face a Michael Vick-like performance that makes you want to puke!

Settling Up Week 10

Top Pair (players who guaranteed a good week)

Michael Vick

Simply put, Vick ended up with the third most points ever since Fantasy Football became mainstream. 333 yards, four pass TDs, 80 rushing yards and two TDs on the ground helped win some matchups with those numbers alone. If he was healthy, he might have locked up the Fantasy MVP already.

Maurice Jones-Drew

Ahh, MJD how we’ve been waiting. After hitting the century mark for just the second time in Week 8, Jones-Drew scored a rushing TD for only the second time (and did so twice). Hopefully, this is a sign of things to come, as it appears MJD is hitting his stride.

Dwayne Bowe

Is it time we finally believe in Dwayne Bowe? He now has five straight games with a TD (eight total) with 91 Fantasy points. He’s fooled us before and some are still waiting for the slipper to drop – just like some of his should-be catches – but you have to play him if you have him at this point.

River Rat (players who surprised everyone)

Matt Cassel

No one expected Cassel to have a game with 469 yards and four TDs at all this year. Then again, no one expected Denver to jump out to a 28-0 lead. Remember that fact before you get too excited as Kansas City spent the entire afternoon passing.

Keiland Williams

Mike Shanahan strikes again. Granted, this was more due to injuries than his changing his mind by the hour. However, Ryan Torain was expected to start and instead Williams got the ball. He scored twice in a blowout loss, but don’t start relying on him just yet. Both Clinton Portis and Torain could be back, and as soon as they are, no one knows whom Shanahan will pick.

Mike Thomas

Take away that insane catch to end the game, and Mike Thomas does not make much news. In any case, it still counts, and it still led to 21 Fantasy points. He’s been the more consistent WR in Jacksonville, but this is his first truly big game. His score is as fluky as the catch.

Gut Shot (players who let everyone down)

Peyton Manning

Where has the old Manning gone? Peyton is not supposed to have games with zero TDs and just 185 yards. That just doesn’t happen. You cannot sit the guy, ever as he’s still the same record-setting Manning who also had 11 TDs in the first four games. Look for him to take his aggression out on New England this week.

Adrian Peterson

Speaking of things that shouldn’t happen…ADP should not total only 51 yards without a score. The Bears defense is good, but not that good. Chalk this one up to Brett Favre throwing three INTs limiting the amount of time the Vikings offense had the ball.

Terrell Owens

Owens has resurrected his career in Cincinnati and became the lead guy for the Bengals. That was before Chad Ochocinco complained about not getting the ball. Well, it looks like Carson Palmer listened because Ocho had the better day against the Colts. Owens was left with just four catches and 64 yards, far from his eight catches and 124 yards receiving average with seven TDs in the previous five games.

What’s the Deal for Week 11?

All In (players I’m high on)

Michael Vick

We already talked about his 49 Fantasy points last week. Now look at this stat: he has a 29.8 Fantasy point average in games where he’s played nearly the whole time (four full games and one where he came in for Kevin Kolb). He also has 11 passing TDs, four rushing, and NO interceptions. The fact is Vick is on a whole other level.

Philip Rivers

Rivers is one of the candidates for league MVP and even Fantasy MVP. He’s thrown for a TD in every game so far, something that Peyton Manning can’t even say. Plus, he’s on pace to break Dan Marino’s yardage record. We may have a new No. 1 QB in Fantasy.

Frank Gore

In a year where there are fewer running backs worthy of the RB1 tag than ever before, Gore has been a workhorse. He is the 49ers offense. No matter who starts at QB, Gore puts up the numbers game in and game out. After the Week 1 struggle, Gore only has one game in single-digits for Fantasy Points. Tampa Bay is on tap this week, and with how poor they play the run, expect Gore to run for days.

Maurice Jones-Drew

As an owner myself, patience was preached over and over with MJD. Hopefully, other owners listened because it’s finally paying off. Jones-Drew has three straight games with double-digit numbers and has a favorable schedule from here on out. Patience is not its own reward, MJD is.

Jamaal Charles

Speaking of being patient, owners have also been waiting for Jamaal Charles to take over in Kansas City. Todd Haley seems reluctant to give Charles the bulk of the carries even as Thomas Jones has struggled. With three straight weak performances, it may finally be time for Charles in Charge (yes, yes I did).

Calvin Johnson (Ace in the Hole)

It’s a good thing the Lions don’t play the Jets again. It looks like Darrelle Revis is the only thing that will stop Johnson. He’s totaled at least four receptions in every game outside of the Revis matchup and his lowest yardage total in those was 45. On top of that, he has a TD in all but two of those same games. It’s going to be a tight race between him, Roddy White and Andre Johnson for the year’s best receiver (and, don’t count out Hakeem Nicks).

Mario Manningham

Nicks’ teammate Manningham settled in as the third option for the Giants this year behind Nicks and Steve Smith. With a torn pectoral sidelining Smith, Manningham took the opportunity and ran with it. In his first starting role as the second WR, he caught 10 passes for 91 yards and a TD. The Giants are another team with a relatively favorable schedule, so look for Manningham to continue his success.

Andre Johnson

The other Johnson (or should Calvin have that moniker?) has not been on par with his typical numbers, but games like last week show just what he can do. For the fourth time this year, Johnson topped 100 yards receiving to go with a TD score. He has the Revis test this week, but after this game, things are much more appealing.

Jacob Tamme

Peyton Manning may force his team to go to a third tight end. Tamme was dealing with injuries heading into the game, but Manning looked his way 10 times anyway. He caught seven of those passes, but said he could barely move or feel his body afterwards. As long as he can get on the field, he will be a great play, but Manning’s affection for him might kill him.

Muck ‘Em (players I’m down on)

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Well that luster disappeared quickly. Fitzpatrick was the hot name a few weeks back, and had Bills’ fans thinking they had a possible long-term solution at QB. Unfortunately, since his four-game tear, Fitzpatrick has just three TDs to go with three INTs. Cincinnati is Jekyll and Hyde when it comes to pass defense, but the upside isn’t there anymore to risk it (and he gets Pittsburgh in Week 12).

Brett Favre (The Flop)

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice – no, five times – no, fifty times, shame on me. I honestly don’t even want to talk about Favre anymore, and it looks like that may be the case now. A week after recording an all-time high in passing yards, Favre threw for just 170 with one TD, three INTs and a lost fumble. He’s simply a shadow of his self and too hurt to play through it every week.

Matt Forte

There is no reason to rank Forte as a top 20 RB anymore. He only has four games with double-digit points, and if he didn’t find score in two of those, would total three points combined. The Bears offensive line does not help matters, as they are not holding back many defenders. Hopefully, you don’t have to rely on him for your team.

Cedric Benson

Another RB who is losing his top 20 status was also a Bears player at one point. Benson has less double-digit games than Forte (just three) and lost any explosiveness he had last year. While Buffalo is an attractive matchup this week, Forte did little against them so don’t get too excited as it’s not always about the opponent. Even with a decent game, Benson remaining schedule and diminished play make him a low-level option.

Beanie Wells

Wells was supposed to take over the Arizona run game this year. He got hurt, but was supposed to take over in his return. He didn’t do either. In fact, he got hurt again and we are still waiting for him to take over now. Let’s face it; it might not happen this year. Plus, the Cardinals are terrible on offense so even if he takes the led, there won’t be much to do.

Hines Ward

Part of the reason Ward was blanked last week was because he was mind-blanked on the field – he took a tough hit and suffered a concussion. Things were not much better the two weeks before that as he had six total catches for 25 yards and one TD. The Steelers have a difficult remaining schedule when it comes to the passing game so Ward’s best games may be behind him this year.

Randy Moss

It’s official, he’s done. Moss had done a great job in his first game with new teams in the past. Yet, he managed only one catch, again, for his Titans’ debut. He doesn’t have more than five catches in a game on the year, has officially lost his WR1 value…, and could soon lose his WR2 status.

Jeremy Maclin

No, I’m not crazy. Take away the TDs and what do you have? A mediocre receiver. Without that long bomb to open the second half last week, Maclin would have totaled three catches and 31 yards. He faces some tough DBs the next two weeks, but admittedly has two nice matchups in Weeks 13 and 14. This is more of a statement not to overrate the player just looking at his numbers.

Tony Gonzalez

Gonzalez will go down as one of the best tight ends of all time. Nevertheless, he is not at this point in his career. He only has three games with seven points or more, and it’s clear the Falcons are the Turner-Ryan-White show. Gonzalez is an afterthought on the field and in Fantasy.

Playing the Odds (Pickups and Drops)

The Turn (players who will help you soon, grab if you can)

S = Starter (QB2/RB2/WR2 or higher)

F = QB3/RB3/WR3, Flex worthy

B = Bench with potential

H = Handcuff/Injury replacement

QB: David Garrard (S), Shaun Hill (S), Jon Kitna (S), Troy Smith (F)

RB: Tim Hightower (F), Danny Woodhead (F), Mike Goodson (B/H), Keiland Williams (B)

WR: Mario Manningham (S), Mike Thomas (F), Nate Washington (F), Steve Breaston (F), James Jones (B), Danny Amendola (F)

TE: Brandon Pettigrew (S), Ron Gronkowski (F – let’s see more than his TD-heavy value)

Bluffed (players who thought would help, but won’t so fold them)

QB: Brett Favre, Chad Henne, Matt Moore, Alex Smith, Matthew Stafford

RB: Marion Barber, Ladell Betts, Ronnie Brown, Justin Forsett, Jerome Harrison, Tim Hightower, Chris Ivory, Lawrence Maroney, Clinton Portis, Steve Slaton, Jonathan Stewart, Cadillac Williams

WR: Bernard Berrian, Jerricho Cotchery, Patrick Crayton, Devery Henderson, Devin Hester, Robert Meachem, Laurent Robinson, Brandon Tate, Roy Williams

TE: Brent Celek, Greg Olsen, Tony Scheffler, Jeremy Shockey

Quarterback
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )

1 - Philip Rivers - SD ( DEN )
2 - Drew Brees - NO ( SEA )
3 - Peyton Manning - IND ( @ NE )
4 - Michael Vick - PHI ( NYG )
5 - Aaron Rodgers - GB ( @ MIN )
6 - Tom Brady - NE ( IND )
7 - Eli Manning - NYG ( @ PHI )
8 - Kyle Orton - DEN ( @ SD )
9 - Ben Roethlisberger - PIT ( OAK )
10 - Joe Flacco - BAL ( @ CAR )
11 - Mark Sanchez - NYJ ( HOU )
12 - Matt Ryan - ATL ( @ STL )
13 - David Garrard - JAC ( CLE )
14 - Matt Schaub - HOU ( @ NYJ )
15 - Shaun Hill - DET ( @ DAL )
16 - Carson Palmer - CIN ( BUF )
17 - Josh Freeman - TB ( @ SF )
18 - Jay Cutler - CHI ( @ MIA )
19 - Matt Cassel - KC ( ARZ )
20 - Jon Kitna - DAL ( DET )
21 - Vince Young - TEN ( WAS )
22 - Ryan Fitzpatrick - BUF ( @ CIN )
23 - Donovan McNabb - WAS ( @ TEN )
24 - Troy Smith - SF ( TB )
25 - Jason Campbell - OAK ( @ PIT )

Running Back
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )

1 - Chris Johnson - TEN ( WAS )
2 - Frank Gore - SF ( TB )
3 - Adrian Peterson - MIN ( GB )
4 - Peyton Hillis - CLE ( @ JAC )
5 - Jamaal Charles - KC ( ARZ )
6 - Maurice Jones-Drew - JAC ( CLE )
7 - Arian Foster - HOU ( @ NYJ )
8 - Rashard Mendenhall - PIT ( OAK )
9 - Michael Turner - ATL ( @ STL )
10 - Ahmad Bradshaw - NYG ( @ PHI )
11 - Steven Jackson - STL ( ATL )
12 - Ray Rice - BAL ( @ CAR )
13 - LeSean McCoy - PHI ( NYG )
14 - Darren McFadden - OAK ( @ PIT )
15 - Cedric Benson - CIN ( BUF )
16 - Knowshon Moreno - DEN ( @ SD )
17 - LaDainian Tomlinson - NYJ ( HOU )
18 - LeGarrette Blount - TB ( @ SF )
19 - Thomas Jones - KC ( ARZ )
20 - Fred Jackson - BUF ( @ CIN )
21 - Jahvid Best - DET ( @ DAL )
22 - BenJarvus Green-Ellis - NE ( IND )
23 - Matt Forte - CHI ( @ MIA )
24 - Felix Jones - DAL ( DET )
25 - Joseph Addai - IND ( @ NE )
26 - Brandon Jackson - GB ( @ MIN )
27 - Mike Tolbert - SD ( DEN )
28 - Shonn Greene - NYJ ( HOU )
29 - Keiland Williams - WAS ( @ TEN )
30 - Ronnie Brown - MIA ( CHI )
31 - Tim Hightower - ARZ ( @ KC )
32 - Mike Goodson - CAR ( BAL )
33 - Reggie Bush - NO ( SEA )
34 - Brandon Jacobs - NYG ( @ PHI )
35 - Marshawn Lynch - SEA ( @ NO )
36 - Ricky Williams - MIA ( CHI )
37 - Beanie Wells - ARZ ( @ KC )
38 - Danny Woodhead - NE ( IND )
39 - Justin Forsett - SEA ( @ NO )
40 - Ryan Mathews - SD ( DEN )
41 - Willis McGahee - BAL ( @ CAR )
42 - Donald Brown - IND ( @ NE )
43 - Ryan Torain - WAS ( @ TEN )
44 - Michael Bush - OAK ( @ PIT )
45 - Marion Barber - DAL ( DET )
46 - Pierre Thomas - NO ( SEA )
47 - Darren Sproles - SD ( DEN )
48 - Chester Taylor - CHI ( @ MIA )
49 - Cadillac Williams - TB ( @ SF )
50 - Jason Snelling - ATL ( @ STL )


Wide Receiver
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )

1 - Calvin Johnson - DET ( @ DAL )
2 - Roddy White - ATL ( @ STL )
3 - Reggie Wayne - IND ( @ NE )
4 - Hakeem Nicks - NYG ( @ PHI )
5 - Andre Johnson - HOU ( @ NYJ )
6 - Greg Jennings - GB ( @ MIN )
7 - DeSean Jackson - PHI ( NYG )
8 - Brandon Lloyd - DEN ( @ SD )
9 - Dwayne Bowe - KC ( ARZ )
10 - Terrell Owens - CIN ( BUF )
11 - Marques Colston - NO ( SEA )
12 - Larry Fitzgerald - ARZ ( @ KC )
13 - Anquan Boldin - BAL ( @ CAR )
14 - Dez Bryant - DAL ( DET )
15 - Jeremy Maclin - PHI ( NYG )
16 - Mike Wallace - PIT ( OAK )
17 - Miles Austin - DAL ( DET )
18 - Braylon Edwards - NYJ ( HOU )
19 - Santonio Holmes - NYJ ( HOU )
20 - Mike Williams - TB ( @ SF )
21 - Randy Moss - TEN ( WAS )
22 - Percy Harvin - MIN ( GB )
23 - Brandon Marshall - MIA ( CHI )
24 - Mario Manningham - NYG ( @ PHI )
25 - Hines Ward - PIT ( OAK )
26 - Steve Johnson - BUF ( @ CIN )
27 - Malcom Floyd - SD ( DEN )
28 - Santana Moss - WAS ( @ TEN )
29 - Chad Ochocinco - CIN ( BUF )
30 - Michael Crabtree - SF ( TB )
31 - Mike Sims-Walker - JAC ( CLE )
32 - Wes Welker - NE ( IND )
33 - Mike Williams - SEA ( @ NO )
34 - Johnny Knox - CHI ( @ MIA )
35 - Pierre Garcon - IND ( @ NE )
36 - Steve Smith - CAR ( BAL )
37 - Nate Washington - TEN ( WAS )
38 - Mike Thomas - JAC ( CLE )
39 - Lee Evans - BUF ( @ CIN )
40 - Lance Moore - NO ( SEA )
41 - Derrick Mason - BAL ( @ CAR )
42 - Jabar Gaffney - DEN ( @ SD )
43 - Donald Driver - GB ( @ MIN )
44 - Steve Breaston - ARZ ( @ KC )
45 - Deion Branch - NE ( IND )
46 - Austin Burleson - DET ( @ DAL )
47 - Danny Amendola - STL ( ATL )
48 - Patrick Crayton - SD ( DEN )
49 - James Jones - GB ( @ MIN )
50 - Robert Meachem - NO ( SEA )

Tight End
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )

1 - Antonio Gates - SD ( DEN )
2 - Vernon Davis - SF ( TB )
3 - Dustin Keller - NYJ ( HOU )
4 - Jacob Tamme - IND ( @ NE )
5 - Zach Miller - OAK ( @ PIT )
6 - Marcedes Lewis - JAC ( CLE )
7 - Jason Witten - DAL ( DET )
8 - Chris Cooley - WAS ( @ TEN )
9 - Todd Heap - BAL ( @ CAR )
10 - Brandon Pettigrew - DET ( @ DAL )
11 - Tony Gonzalez - ATL ( @ STL )
12 - Kellen Winslow - TB ( @ SF )
13 - Visanthe Scheffler - DET ( @ DAL )
14 - Benjamin Watson - CLE ( @ JAC )
15 - Aaron Hernandez - NE ( IND )
16 - Jermaine Gresham - CIN ( BUF )
17 - Heath Miller - PIT ( OAK )
18 - Jeremy Shiancoe - MIN ( GB )
19 - Greg Olsen - CHI ( @ MIA )
20 - Tony Moeaki - KC ( ARZ )
21 - Kevin Boss - NYG ( @ PHI )
22 - Rob Gronkowski - NE ( IND )
23 - Anthony Fasano - MIA ( CHI )
24 - Brent Celek - PHI ( NYG )
25 - Owen Daniels - HOU ( @ NYJ )

Kicker
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )

1 - Rob Bironas - TEN ( WAS )
2 - David Akers - PHI ( NYG )
3 - Dan Carpenter - MIA ( CHI )
4 - Adam Vinatieri - IND ( @ NE )
5 - Sebastian Janikowski - OAK ( @ PIT )
6 - Matt Bryant - ATL ( @ STL )
7 - Matt Prater - DEN ( @ SD )
8 - Ryan Longwell - MIN ( GB )
9 - Mason Crosby - GB ( @ MIN )
10 - Robbie Gould - CHI ( @ MIA )
11 - Nick Folk - NYJ ( HOU )
12 - Josh Scobee - JAC ( CLE )
13 - Jay Feely - ARZ ( @ KC )
14 - Nate Kaeding - SD ( DEN )
15 - Lawrence Tynes - NYG ( @ PHI )
16 - Neil Rackers - HOU ( @ NYJ )
17 - Billy Cundiff - BAL ( @ CAR )
18 - Garrett Hartley - NO ( SEA )
19 - Shayne Graham - NE ( IND )
20 - Josh Brown - STL ( ATL )

Defense
Rank - Team ( Opp )

1 - Steelers ( OAK )
2 - Packers ( @ MIN )
3 - Titans ( WAS )
4 - Bears ( @ MIA )
5 - Ravens ( @ CAR )
6 - Saints ( SEA )
7 - Jets ( HOU )
8 - Eagles ( NYG )
9 - Giants ( @ PHI )
10 - Chiefs ( ARZ )
11 - Dolphins ( CHI )
12 - 49ers ( TB )
13 - Cowboys ( DET )
14 - Falcons ( @ STL )
15 - Raiders ( @ PIT )
16 - Rams ( ATL )
17 - Vikings ( GB )
18 - Chargers ( DEN )
19 - Patriots ( IND )
20 - Cardinals ( @ KC )
21 - Lions ( @ DAL )
22 - Bengals ( BUF )
23 - Seahawks ( @ NO )
24 - Browns ( @ JAC )
25 - Buccaneers ( @ SF )

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