Wednesday, September 22, 2010

All in Sports Fantasy Advice
Week Three - Football Breakdown and Rankings


I still remember the day like it was yesterday. Not to mention, even to this day my friends still bring it up and mock me for it. I explain my reasons (more on that in a bit) every time, and we all laugh about it – them more than me.

It was September 16, 2007, and the Giants just finished playing the Packers at home. To refresh your memory, they were then 0-2 and had given up a total of 80 points in two games (first game was in Dallas). My exact words after Favre and the Packers dismantled the Giants? “I hope we lose enough to get the first pick, draft Darren McFadden, and fire Tom Coughlin.”

You see, at the time, Coughlin was on the hot seat. The Giants had lost in their first playoff game each of the past two years after going 6-10 in 2004. Meanwhile, Darren McFadden was shredding college defenses on his way to the Walter Camp Award (the nation’s best player). Derrick Ward, a seventh round pick by the Jets, was the Giants’ lead back. Things were looking bleak. Now, I wasn’t the only Giants fan calling for Coughlin’s head or wanting to see a player like McFadden in a Giants’ uniform…but, for all intents and purposes with my friends, I might as well have been.

How quickly things change. That was the same year the Giants won the next six games and made the playoffs at 10-6. Unless you have amnesia, you know what happened next – three straight road playoff wins against Tampa Bay, Dallas and Green Bay…then a Super Bowl win against the unbeatable, 18-0, New England Patriots. Think I still wanted that first pick of the 2008 draft? Think my friends let me live my claim down? Not to this day!

People have different personalities and different ways of dealing with losses. Some of us brush it off and don’t worry about it. Some yell and curse and pound the floor. Others (like me) want teams to lose big if the team is going to lose. While some prefer the nail-biting, I’d rather lose by 30 than by a field goal as time expires. Am I wrong? No. Are others and their ways of coping? No again (unless there is some property damage or law breaking).

Here is the catch, do not choose my method when dealing with Fantasy teams. It has been only two games, and there are 11 left. I’ve seen teams go 4-0 and miss the playoffs, and teams start 0-4 win a league. I think I may have mentioned it once or twice (or fifty times), but Fantasy Football involves luck. All you have to do is make the playoffs, and then you can easily put together a nice Giants-like run to the championship.

You know what losing the most games of the 2007 season would have got the Giants? They probably would have a different coach and Darren McFadden at running back (who has not lived up to his college hype). Giants fans would have likely been jumping off the Brooklyn Bridge in droves at this point. Know what the Giants wouldn’t have? A Super Bowl ring, the glory of stopping the Patriots from a perfect season, and the most memorable catch and play in Super Bowl history. Good thing I don’t control the universe huh?

So, before you blow up your team and cast off all of your stud players, think about the Giants and my claim. Do you really want to be the guy who sees your former players help another team win your league because you wanted to go down in a fiery flame? Take a breath, hit the waiver wire, try to fix your team’s weaknesses, and press on. Trust me, doing it the other way just leads to being mocked year after year.

Settling Up Week 2

Top Pair (players who guaranteed a good week)

Matt Schaub and Frank Gore

See what happens when you don’t panic after one week and keep your studs in your lineup? Rewarding isn’t it? Schaub threw for almost 500 yards (497 to be precise) and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Frank Gore racked up 168 total yards with two touchdowns (one rushing and one receiving). This is the ol’ “proof in the pudding” situation showing you to play your elite players over the hot name of the week.

River Rat (player who surprised everyone)

Jahvid Best

Jahvid Best had two rushing touchdowns in week 1. He also had a measly 1.4 yards per carry. He improved on that in Week 2 by leaps and bounds (both figurative and literal). Not only did he average 4.6 yards per carry, but ran for another two touchdowns while catching one – as he was the leading receiver (154 yards on nine catches) for the Lions as well.

Gut Shot (player who let everyone down)

Chris Johnson

I tweeted (ok shameless promotion time – follow me @AllinSportsJC – I need followers to look better for work!) on Sunday before the game that the Steelers had allowed on ONE running back to rush over 100 yards in the past 36 games. Did I see them bottling up Mr. 2k, Chris Johnson, for just 34 yards and no touchdowns? Would you believe me if I did? No? Good call. But, this should say something about the Steelers defense. It’s certainly looked impregnable, as Mike would say.

All In or Muck Em? (Hot or Not)

All In (Hot)

Peyton Manning, Mike Vick, Jay Cutler, Jahvid Best, Darren McFadden, Miles Austin, Reggie Wayne, Wes Welker, Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark

Peyton already has six TDs in two games and almost 700 yards. When will people stop trying to argue for someone else as the greatest quarterback in the league? Vick has been so good that he is starting over Kolb, and it has nothing to do with Kolb’s concussion. Watch out because he’s still a dangerous dual-threat. Cutler has a propensity to throw interceptions, but has always had the athletic ability. Now Martz is helping him take full advantage of it. Best has multiple scores and Darren McFadden has eclipsed 100 all-purpose yards in each week this year. That’s not bad for two middle round picks. Austin caught 10 passes in weeks 1 and 2 with over 140 yards receiving in each. Wayne has yet to show his age putting up seven receptions, 90+ yards and a score in each game. Wes Welker is still a PPR dream with 14 catches on the year already. The two studs of the tight end world, Gates and Clark both have double-digit receptions and multiple TDs.

Muck Em (Not)

Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Brandon Jackson, Ray Rice, DeAngelo Williams, Greg Jennings, Larry Fitzgerald, Jabar Gaffney, Greg Olsen

The other Manning faced a near impossible task of a must-win for big brother and the Colts. Plus, the Giants are trying to focus more on the run game. Alex Smith cannot seem to click with anyone not named Vernon Davis on a regular basis. Brandon Jackson had a gift-wrapped matchup against the Bills for his first starting role and fell flat. Not only has Ray Rice not scored, that may be the story more often than not with Willis McGahee stealing goal-line carries. The Panthers rushing offense was supposed to be one of the league’s best. Someone should tell DeAngelo and Jonathan Stewart. Greg Jennings and Fitzgerald have yet to live up to their top-10 status, while the early season shine for Gaffney has worn off (especially with Demaryius Thomas back). Martz kills tight ends – well not literally – but in Fantasy, it’s true and Olsen is the latest victim.

What’s the Deal for Week 3?

Ace in the Hole (players who will increase your odds of winning)

Matt Schaub, Petyon Manning, Chris Johnson, LeSean McCoy, Knowshon Moreno, DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Hakeem Nicks, Vernon Davis

Schaub and Manning both need no explanation, just set it and…FORGET IT! Chris Johnson will have a bounce back week. The Giants have to be upset they get another elite player who’s out to prove a point in back to back weeks. Plus, look what Addai did to them. McCoy and Moreno both have quality matchups and their teams are relying on them fully in the run game. McCoy’s teammate DeSean Jackson will enjoy the matchup against a weak Jaguars defense as well. Speaking of matchups, Marshall faces the Jets without Revis this week, he should have fun. Nicks is practicing in full this week, and is becoming Eli’s go-to receiver. As mentioned, Vernon Davis is the only 49ers receiver Smith seems to like, so look for that to continue this week.

The Flop (players who will let you down)

Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck, DeAngelo Williams, Brandon Jackson, Shonn Greene, Mike Wallace, Lee Evans, Kellen Winslow

Those who claimed Palmer was back are in hiding after last week. Granted, New England’s secondary can make pedestrian quarterbacks look good, and the Ravens can make the great ones look mediocre. However, those hoping for Palmer to return to 2005-07 form should not hold their breath. Hasselbeck is another QB who will never be as good as days past. He has four interceptions in two games. Don’t expect DeAngelo Williams to change the Panthers run problems this week. Cincinnati is a top-end defense, and if you had to stop Williams or Jimmy Clausen, who would you pick? Brandon Jackson should not have too much more success this week in Chicago, and Greene is now second fiddle to the rebirth of LaDainian Tomlinson. Mike Wallace has big potential, but not until Ben Roethlisberger returns. Ryan Fitzpatrick is taking over in Buffalo at QB, but it won’t get much better for Evans; that offense is anemic. The Bucs leading receiver is tight end Kellen Winslow, but that’s not a good thing as a team. He won’t repeat last week’s performance against the strong Steelers defense.

Playing the Odds (Pickups and Drops)

The Turn (players who will help you soon, grab if you can)

Josh Freeman, Mike Tolbert, Jason Snelling, Demaryius Thomas, Louis Murphy, Kevin Walter, Devin Hester

Don’t start Freeman this week against the Steelers, but with bye weeks coming, he can make for a nice fill-in starter. Tolbert and Snelling are must-owns for Ryan Mathews and Michael Turner owners. Outside of that, if you have the spots, you could stash one in hopes the lead backs get hurt again. Thomas was a preseason darling and his return in week 2 brought that back. Murphy is the leading receiver in Oakland – hey, a leader is a leader. Kevin Walter reminded everyone why he was one of the more popular No. 2 wide receivers before his injury. The Texans won’t get 500 yards passing every week, but he is pushing Jacoby Jones to be the full-time No. 2 behind Andre Johsnon. Hester will be inconsistent, but Aromashodu is on Martz bad side so Hester takes his spot in Chicago.

Bluffed (players who thought would help, but won’t so fold them)

Based off a 12-team league, you can fold these players: Matt Cassel, Matthew Stafford, Matt Hasselbeck (trend anyone? Look out Matt Ryan – just kidding), Chester Taylor, Correll Buckhalter, Leon Washington, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Lee Evans, Nate Burleson, Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Lloyd

Week 3 Rankings

Quarterback
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )

1 - Aaron Rodgers - GB ( @ CHI )
2 - Peyton Manning - IND ( @ DEN )
3 - Matt Schaub - HOU ( DAL )
4 - Tom Brady - NE ( BUF )
5 - Philip Rivers - SD ( @ SEA )
6 - Tony Romo - DAL ( @ HOU )
7 - Drew Brees - NO ( ATL )
8 - Mike Vick - PHI ( @ JAC )
9 - Donovan McNabb - WAS ( @ STL )
10 - Jay Cutler - CHI ( GB )
11 - Brett Favre - MIN ( DET )
12 - Carson Palmer - CIN ( @ CAR )
13 - Joe Flacco - BAL ( CLE )
14 - Kyle Orton - DEN ( IND )
15 - Eli Manning - NYG ( TEN )
16 - Matt Ryan - ATL ( @ NO )
17 - Vince Young - TEN ( @ NYG )
18 - David Garrard - JAC ( PHI )
19 - Alex Smith - SF ( @ KC )
20 - Sam Bradford - STL ( WAS )
21 - Matt Hasselbeck - SEA ( SD )
22 - Chad Henne - MIA ( NYJ )
23 - Shaun Hill - DET ( @ MIN )
24 - Matt Cassel - KC ( SF )
25 - Derek Anderson - ARZ ( OAK )
26 - Mark Sanchez - NYJ ( @ MIA )
27 - Bruce Gradkowski - OAK ( @ ARZ )
28 - Josh Freeman - TB ( PIT )
29 - Jimmy Clausen - CAR ( CIN )
30 - Ryan Fitzpatrick - BUF ( @ NE )

Runningback
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )

1 - Adrian Peterson - MIN ( DET )
2 - Chris Johnson - TEN ( @ NYG )
3 - Ray Rice - BAL ( CLE )
4 - Maurice Jones-Drew - JAC ( PHI )
5 - Frank Gore - SF ( @ KC )
6 - Michael Turner - ATL ( @ NO )
7 - Rashard Mendenhall - PIT ( @ TB )
8 - LeSean McCoy - PHI ( @ JAC )
9 - Steven Jackson - STL ( WAS )
10 - Pierre Thomas - NO ( ATL )
11 - Cedric Benson - CIN ( @ CAR )
12 - Darren McFadden - OAK ( @ ARZ )
13 - Knowshon Moreno - DEN ( IND )
14 - Arian Foster - HOU ( DAL )
15 - Jahvid Best - DET ( @ MIN )
16 - DeAngelo Williams - CAR ( CIN )
17 - Joseph Addai - IND ( @ DEN )
18 - Ryan Mathews - SD ( @ SEA )
19 - Ahmad Bradshaw - NYG ( TEN )
20 - Tim Hightower - ARZ ( OAK )
21 - Clinton Portis - WAS ( @ STL )
22 - Matt Forte - CHI ( GB )
23 - Ronnie Brown - MIA ( NYJ )
24 - Jamaal Charles - KC ( SF )
25 - LaDainian Tomlinson - NYJ ( @ MIA )
26 - Brandon Jackson - GB ( @ CHI )
27 - Marion Barber - DAL ( @ HOU )
28 - Shonn Greene - NYJ ( @ MIA )
29 - Thomas Jones - KC ( SF )
30 - Jonathan Stewart - CAR ( CIN )
31 - Fred Taylor - NE ( BUF )
32 - Beanie Wells - ARZ ( OAK )
33 - Cadillac Williams - TB ( PIT )
34 - Justin Forsett - SEA ( SD )
35 - Felix Jones - DAL ( @ HOU )
36 - Willis McGahee - BAL ( CLE )
37 - Ricky Williams - MIA ( NYJ )
38 - Fred Jackson - BUF ( @ NE )
39 - Donald Brown - IND ( @ DEN )
40 - Jerome Harrison - CLE ( @ BAL )
41 - Peyton Hillis - CLE ( @ BAL )
42 - Mike Tolbert - SD ( @ SEA )
43 - C.J. Spiller - BUF ( @ NE )
44 - Marshawn Lynch - BUF ( @ NE )
45 - Brandon Jacobs - NYG ( TEN )
46 - Darren Sproles - SD ( @ SEA )
47 - Jason Snelling - ATL ( @ NO )
48 - BenJarvus Green-Ellis - NE ( BUF )
49 - Chester Taylor - CHI ( GB )
50 - Leon Washington - SEA ( SD )


Wide Receiver
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )

1 - Andre Johnson - HOU ( DAL )
2 - Miles Austin - DAL ( @ HOU )
3 - Randy Moss - NE ( BUF )
4 - Roddy White - ATL ( @ NO )
5 - Reggie Wayne - IND ( @ DEN )
6 - DeSean Jackson - PHI ( @ JAC )
7 - Brandon Marshall - MIA ( NYJ )
8 - Larry Fitzgerald - ARZ ( OAK )
9 - Greg Jennings - GB ( @ CHI )
10 - Wes Welker - NE ( BUF )
11 - Calvin Johnson - DET ( @ MIN )
12 - Anquan Boldin - BAL ( CLE )
13 - Marques Colston - NO ( ATL )
14 - Chad Ochocinco - CIN ( @ CAR )
15 - Hakeem Nicks - NYG ( TEN )
16 - Steve Smith - CAR ( CIN )
17 - Santana Moss - WAS ( @ STL )
18 - Donald Driver - GB ( @ CHI )
19 - Steve Smith - NYG ( TEN )
20 - Mike Sims-Walker - JAC ( PHI )
21 - Jeremy Maclin - PHI ( @ JAC )
22 - Malcom Floyd - SD ( @ SEA )
23 - Michael Crabtree - SF ( @ KC )
24 - Percy Harvin - MIN ( DET )
25 - Hines Ward - PIT ( @ TB )
26 - Austin Collie - IND ( @ DEN )
27 - Johnny Knox - CHI ( GB )
28 - Dez Bryant - DAL ( @ HOU )
29 - Pierre Garcon - IND ( @ DEN )
30 - Terrell Owens - CIN ( @ CAR )
31 - Dwayne Bowe - KC ( SF )
32 - Eddie Royal - DEN ( IND )
33 - Mark Clayton - STL ( WAS )
34 - Mike Williams - TB ( PIT )
35 - Mike Wallace - PIT ( @ TB )
36 - Demaryius Thomas - DEN ( IND )
37 - Steve Breaston - ARZ ( OAK )
38 - Louis Murphy - OAK ( @ ARZ )
39 - Kevin Walter - HOU ( DAL )
40 - Devin Hester - CHI ( GB )
41 - Jacoby Jones - HOU ( DAL )
42 - Lee Evans - BUF ( @ NE )
43 - Derrick Mason - BAL ( CLE )
44 - Robert Meachem - NO ( ATL )
45 - Jabar Gaffney - DEN ( IND )
46 - Mario Manningham - NYG ( TEN )
47 - Nate Washington - TEN ( @ NYG )
48 - Legedu Naanee - SD ( @ SEA )
49 - Bernard Berrian - MIN ( DET )
50 - Mike Williams - SEA ( SD )


Tight End
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )

1 - Antonio Gates - SD ( @ SEA )
2 - Dallas Clark - IND ( @ DEN )
3 - Jermichael Finley - GB ( @ CHI )
4 - Vernon Davis - SF ( @ KC )
5 - Visanthe Shiancoe - MIN ( DET )
6 - Brent Celek - PHI ( @ JAC )
7 - Chris Cooley - WAS ( @ STL )
8 - Jason Witten - DAL ( @ HOU )
9 - Tony Gonzalez - ATL ( @ NO )
10 - Heath Miller - PIT ( @ TB )
11 - Dustin Keller - NYJ ( @ MIA )
12 - Kellen Winslow - TB ( PIT )
13 - Zach Miller - OAK ( @ ARZ )
14 - John Carlson - SEA ( SD )
15 - Jermaine Gresham - CIN ( @ CAR )
16 - Marcedes Lewis - JAC ( PHI )
17 - Todd Heap - BAL ( CLE )
18 - Tony Scheffler - DET ( @ MIN )
19 - Aaron Hernandez - NE ( BUF )
20 - Brandon Pettigrew - DET ( @ MIN )
21 - Owen Daniels - HOU ( DAL )
22 - Greg Olsen - CHI ( GB )
23 - Jeremy Shockey - NO ( ATL )
24 - Tony Moeaki - KC ( SF )
25 - Anthony Fasano - MIA ( NYJ )

Kicker
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )

1 - Nate Kaeding - SD ( @ SEA )
2 - Ryan Longwell - MIN ( DET )
3 - Stephen Gostkowski - NE ( BUF )
4 - David Akers - PHI ( @ JAC )
5 - Garrett Hartley - NO ( ATL )
6 - Neil Rackers - HOU ( DAL )
7 - Mason Crosby - GB ( @ CHI )
8 - Robbie Gould - CHI ( GB )
9 - Lawrence Tynes - NYG ( TEN )
10 - Jeff Reed - PIT ( @ TB )
11 - Rob Bironas - TEN ( @ NYG )
12 - John Kasay - CAR ( CIN )
13 - Dan Carpenter - MIA ( NYJ )
14 - Matt Prater - DEN ( IND )
15 - Matt Bryant - ATL ( @ NO )
16 - Mike Nugent - CIN ( @ CAR )
17 - Sebastian Janikowski - OAK ( @ ARZ )
18 - Adam Vinatieri - IND ( @ DEN )
19 - Jay Feely - ARZ ( OAK )
20 - Billy Cundiff - BAL ( CLE )
21 - Graham Gano - WAS ( @ STL )
22 - Ryan Succop - KC ( SF )
23 - Nick Folk - NYJ ( @ MIA )
24 - Joe Nedney - SF ( @ KC )
25 - David Buehler - DAL ( @ HOU )

Defense
Rank - Team ( Opp )

1 - Steelers ( @ TB )
2 - Ravens ( CLE )
3 - Vikings ( DET )
4 - Eagles ( @ JAC )
5 - Packers ( @ CHI )
6 - Patriots ( BUF )
7 - Bengals ( @ CAR )
8 - Jets ( @ MIA )
9 - 49ers ( @ KC )
10 - Saints ( ATL )
11 - Dolphins ( NYJ )
12 - Chargers ( @ SEA )
13 - Redskins ( @ STL )
14 - Giants ( TEN )
15 - Cowboys ( @ HOU )
16 - Titans ( @ NYG )
17 - Chiefs ( SF )
18 - Cardinals ( OAK )
19 - Buccaneers ( PIT )
20 - Raiders ( @ ARZ )
21 - Texans ( DAL )
22 - Colts ( @ DEN )
23 - Lions ( @ MIN )
24 - Falcons ( @ NO )
25 - Panthers ( CIN )

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