All in Sports Fantasy Advice

Week Two - Football Breakdown and Rankings

Arian Foster. Not the most well-known name in Fantasy Football at the start of week one. Now? Try and find someone who has not heard his name. Foster carried teams to victory this past week by putting up an amazing stat line; numbers that might not be matched this year.

Yes, that same Arian Foster who was going to split carries with Ben Tate and Steve Slaton. Yes, that same Arian Foster who was being drafted in the middle rounds. As everyone knows, no one saw this coming. Well, unless you read some of the post-game comments from owners. “I knew he should have been in my lineup.” “He was my pick to become a fantasy stud.” “I told people he’d be a top 10 running back.” No you didn’t. No he wasn’t. And, baloney!

Arian Foster was in fact a sleeper pick by many in the industry. However, no one this side of Nostradamus saw that coming. If you need a similar point of reference, look no further than Week 15 of 2009 where Jerome Harrison had a very similar day. He stepped in as the Browns feature back against the Chiefs. Just like Foster, he either made owners very happy or fairly upset that he was on the bench (the vast majority fell in to the latter). Here’s the kicker for this situation (which seems to happen every year); owners immediately say they regret not starting a player like this, even over an elite player they own. That last part is the focal point this week.

The reason I continually compare Fantasy Sports to poker is because they are immensely similar. Just like poker, the way to win is to play the odds. You bet (start or sit) on whether you think you have the best hand (team). Just like poker, having the best odds does not always mean you will win. Every outcome in both Fantasy and poker is based on odds. It is inevitable that you will be on both the lucky side and the unfortunate side of a break. Those are the facts.

That’s what makes Fantasy Sports and poker so thrilling and yet, frustrating. You can practice, study, read your opponent, etc., to get better and improve your odds. Nevertheless, even a 99% favorable odd still has that one-percent chance of losing. Eventually, it will happen.

Foster could become the next surprise star and finish in the top 10, but he could also be the next Jerome Harrison who ends up splitting carries down the road. Odds are more against him being a top 10 back than they are for him. That’s why if you want the best odds for winning, you still start the Michael Turners and the like over him.

A quick side not for you: This does not only apply to surprise breakouts, but also to disappointing performances for star players. Don’t ask how many owners have started offering Andre Johnson in trades for poor return, or even consider benching him for Austin Collie. Go back and read last week’s article. Guys, it is only one week. One game does not make or break your season.

Back to Foster, you’ll see he almost made my top 10 this week. But, he has not shown enough (outside of the game against the Colts) to slide him in front of the yearly producers. There is a reason you spent what you did to draft those guys; they are proven. Again, the point is to increase your odds of winning as much as possible, so keep your elites in your lineup. If you can, start Foster this week, just not at the cost of a stud…unless you like the thrill of playing against the odds.

Week One - Settling Up

Top Pair (players who guaranteed a good week)

Peyton Manning

Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers were the first two quarterbacks off the board in drafts. Yet, it was the QB king himself, Peyton Manning, who led the charge the first week with 433 yards and three touchdowns. It seems he always finds a way to surprise us – although, we shouldn’t be at this point.

Chris Johnson

The leading fantasy RB in 2009 was Chris Johnson, and he picked up where he left off. With 27 carries for 142 yards, maybe he does have a real chance to make good on that 2,500 yards rushing promise.

River Rat (player who surprised everyone)

Arian Foster

What more do I need to say about him? Besides the fact he set records for the first week of a football season, he has caused more message board fodder than Ocho and T.O. combined. 231 yards and three TDs? Thank you very much. Honorable mention goes to Matt Forte as he would have been here if not for Foster.

Gut Shot (player who let everyone down)

Andre Johnson

Johnson was a consensus first round pick and first receiver off the board. He was drafted ahead of top 10 running backs and usually before any quarterback. What happened Week One though? A pedestrian three catches for 33 yards was his stat line. Expect much bigger games, but this one hurt.

All In or Muck Em? (Hot or Not)

All In (Hot)

Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers

As I mentioned, he was on fire the first week. Expect this to continue against the Giants and little brother. While he was more of a spark compared to Manning’s full blown blaze, Rivers still threw for almost 300 yards while chipping in two TD passes. He faces one of the lesser defenses in the league this week against Jacksonville.

Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Matt Forte

I already pointed out how Johnson looked just as good as his 2009 self in Week One. This week, Pittsburgh may slow him down a bit, but not enough to keep him out of the top 10. Anyone surprised this is the third piece in which Arian Foster is listed? Nope, didn’t think so. He’s been covered plenty already. Matt Forte is trying to put 2009 behind him. He started off as good as anyone could have hoped. We’ll find out just how much he’s back against a tougher Dallas defense.

Hakeem Nicks, Chad Ochocinco, Miles Austin, Reggie Wayne

Eli Manning has finally found his new favorite redzone target since Plaxico’s…uh, “departure.” He’s halfway to his 2009 touchdown total and is well on his way to “stud” status. Ocho showed everyone who the real No. 1 in Cincinnati is even with Terrell Owens now in town. He and Palmer still have a great connection, and he will continue to be the first option in the Bengals passing attack. If anyone was wondering if Miles Austin’s 2009 season was a flash in the pan, Austin did what he could to squash those thoughts. With a new contract under his belt, his focus will be solely on putting up great numbers every week. Who’s over the hill? Who’s on the downslope of his career? Well, if Reggie Wayne is, he isn’t showing it. Manning and Wayne continue to have great chemistry, and until he’s given reason otherwise, look for him to produce.

Antonio Gates and Visante Shiancoe

What do Gates and Shiancoe have in common? (Besides sounding like a terrible cop duo) They are the most trusted options for their QBs. Shiancoe relies a bit more on touchdowns for his Fantasy value, but both should continue to put up numbers.

Muck Em (Not)

Brett Favre, Donovan McNabb

Favre’s performance may give a little hint that he’s questioning his return. Either that, or not even Favre himself can come in last minute, play a few snaps, and expect to sling the ball like he’s in midseason form. While Donovan McNabb typically has mediocre games against the Cowboys, that’s not the only reason for his mid-level numbers. The Redskins offense is not on par with the Eagles. McNabb is a significant upgrade over Jason Campbell, but don’t expect top 10 QB numbers.

Shonn Greene, Marion Barber, Brandon Jacobs, Seattle RB ______, Buffalo RB ______

One coach’s doghouse you don’t want to get into is Rex Ryan’s. Greene fumbled twice and looked less than explosive. Ryan even admitted he didn’t notice how little he used Greene. That’s a problem! LaDainian Tomlinson looked much better and now is threatening to take more of the 50/50 timeshare for himself. Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs are two peas in a pod. They are hammering type of backs that are losing time to more elusive and better pass-catching RBs (Felix Jones and Ahmad Bradshaw). Why are there “fill in the blanks” for Seattle and Buffalo? Because it doesn’t matter which name you choose. Both teams are not only in the dreaded timeshare situation, they have trio timeshares. Until someone gets hurt or one breaks out (a la Arian Foster) forget seeing great performances for either team.

What’s the Deal? Week Two

Ace in the Hole (players who will increase your odds of winning)

Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, Michael Turner, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Miles Austin, Reggie Wayne

Besides the obvious “All In” players listed earlier, expect bounce back weeks from Schaub, Turner, Gore and DeAngelo. The Texans will not run the ball that much again, and Schaub will connect with Andre Johnson more than three times. This is still a team that throws over 60% of the time. Turner, Gore and Williams are too good to keep down in back-to-back weeks. All three have nice matchups and will show why you paid what you did to get them.

The Flop (players who will let you down)

Kyle Orton, Joe Flacco, Jerome Harrison, Brandon Jackson, Randy Moss, Donald Driver

Although Orton threw for 295 yards in the opener, he is still the same player who makes more poor decisions than you want from your QB. Plus, he faces a better defense in Seattle this week compared to Jacksonville. Flacco faced a tough defense in Week One and don’t expect things to get easier this week. The Bengals secondary is one of the better units in the league. Wasn’t Jerome Harrison supposed to tear up the Buccaneers’ defense again this year? Instead, we saw a healthy dose of Peyton Hillis. Hope you sold high on the preseason hype. Brandon Jackson is the pickup of the week. While he can and will put up solid numbers, he is not Ryan Grant. He makes for a good No. 2 running back choice, but owners expecting top 10 numbers will be disappointed. Randy Moss faces off against Darrelle Revis this week and has a history of being shut down by him so don’t bench him, but temper your expectations. Lastly, as bad as the Bills are for a team, their secondary is quite good and should hold Driver to a less than stellar performance.

The Turn (players who will help you soon, grab if you can)

Ryan Mathews, Beanie Wells, DeAngelo Williams, DeSean Jackson, Michael Crabtree, Eli Manning, Matt Schaub

Mathews had a slow first week, but he is the feature back in a quality offense. In addition, Kansas City is a tough place to start – especially with the stadium being redesigned and fans therefore ecstatic. Wells will be healthy soon and should take touches away from Hightower. DeAngelo Williams will see more chances when the team (Matt Moore) does not turn the ball over as much. DeSean Jackson and Crabtree are simply too talented to keep down. Eli Manning continues to be overlooked given his past. Those interceptions were not his fault and is looking just as good as 2009. Another player who is too good to not recover is Matt Schaub, and that is why I put him as a Week Two Ace.

I’m not advocating overpaying for these guys, but if they are available for good value (remember it’s all about that very word – value) then go get them.

Rankings

Quarterback
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Peyton Manning - IND ( NYG )
2 - Aaron Rodgers - GB ( BUF )
3 - Drew Brees - NO ( @ SF )
4 - Philip Rivers - SD ( JAC )
5 - Tony Romo - DAL ( CHI )
6 - Matt Schaub - HOU ( @ WAS )
7 - Tom Brady - NE ( @ NYJ )
8 - Michael Vick - PHI ( @ DET )
9 - Eli Manning - NYG ( @ IND )
10 - Joe Flacco - BAL ( @ CIN )
11 - Brett Favre - MIN ( MIA )
12 - Matt Ryan - ATL ( ARZ )
13 - Donovan McNabb - WAS ( HOU )
14 - Jay Cutler - CHI ( @ DAL )
15 - Carson Palmer - CIN ( BAL )
16 - Kyle Orton - DEN ( SEA )
17 - Vince Young - TEN ( PIT )
18 - Chad Henne - MIA ( @ MIN )
19 - Derek Anderson - ARZ ( @ ATL )
20 - Jason Campbell - OAK ( STL )
21 - Matt Cassel - KC ( @ CLE )
22 - David Garrard - JAC ( @ SD )
23 - Matt Hasselbeck - SEA ( @ DEN )
24 - Alex Smith - SF ( NO )
25 - Sam Bradford - STL ( @ OAK )
26 - Josh Freeman - TB ( @ CAR )
27 - Mark Sanchez - NYJ ( NE )
28 - Dennis Dixon - PIT ( @ TEN )
29 - Jake Delhomme - CLE ( KC )
30 - Shaun Hill - DET ( PHI )

Running Back
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Adrian Peterson - MIN ( MIA )
2 - Chris Johnson - TEN ( PIT )
3 - Michael Turner - ATL ( ARZ )
4 - Steven Jackson - STL ( @ OAK )
5 - Ray Rice - BAL ( @ CIN )
6 - Maurice Jones-Drew - JAC ( @ SD )
7 - Frank Gore - SF ( NO )
8 - DeAngelo Williams - CAR ( TB )
9 - Jamaal Charles - KC ( @ CLE )
10 - Rashard Mendenhall - PIT ( @ TEN )
11 - Arian Foster - HOU ( @ WAS )
12 - Ryan Mathews - SD ( JAC )
13 - Ahmad Bradshaw - NYG ( @ IND )
14 - LeSean McCoy - PHI ( @ DET )
15 - Cedric Benson - CIN ( BAL )
16 - Pierre Thomas - NO ( @ SF )
17 - Brandon Jackson - GB ( BUF )
18 - Knowshon Moreno - DEN ( SEA )
19 - Joseph Addai - IND ( NYG )
20 - Jahvid Best - DET ( PHI )
21 - Matt Forte - CHI ( @ DAL )
22 - Darren McFadden - OAK ( STL )
23 - Shonn Greene - NYJ ( NE )
24 - Marion Barber - DAL ( CHI )
25 - Ronnie Brown - MIA ( @ MIN )
26 - Jerome Harrison - CLE ( KC )
27 - Cadillac Williams - TB ( @ CAR )
28 - Brandon Jacobs - NYG ( @ IND )
29 - Beanie Wells - ARZ ( @ ATL )
30 - Jonathan Stewart - CAR ( TB )
31 - C.J. Spiller - BUF ( @ GB )
32 - Clinton Portis - WAS ( HOU )
33 - LaDainian Tomlinson - NYJ ( NE )
34 - Tim Hightower - ARZ ( @ ATL )
35 - Thomas Jones - KC ( @ CLE )
36 - Felix Jones - DAL ( CHI )
37 - Justin Forsett - SEA ( @ DEN )
38 - Reggie Bush - NO ( @ SF )
39 - Peyton Hillis - CLE ( KC )
40 - Ricky Williams - MIA ( @ MIN )
41 - Willis McGahee - BAL ( @ CIN )
42 - Darren Sproles - SD ( JAC )
43 - Fred Taylor - NE ( @ NYJ )
44 - Chester Taylor - CHI ( @ DAL )
45 - Fred Jackson - BUF ( @ GB )
46 - Michael Bush - OAK ( STL )
47 - Steve Slaton - HOU ( @ WAS )
48 - Correll Buckhalter - DEN ( SEA )
49 - Bernard Scott - CIN ( BAL )
50 - Leon Washington - SEA ( @ DEN )
51 - Larry Johnson - WAS ( HOU )
52 - Jerious Norwood - ATL ( ARZ )
53 - Donald Brown - IND ( NYG )
54 - Marshawn Lynch - BUF ( @ GB )
55 - Laurence Maroney - DEN ( SEA )

Wide Receiver
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Andre Johnson - HOU ( @ WAS )
2 - Roddy White - ATL ( ARZ )
3 - Miles Austin - DAL ( CHI )
4 - Reggie Wayne - IND ( NYG )
5 - Greg Jennings - GB ( BUF )
6 - Larry Fitzgerald - ARZ ( @ ATL )
7 - Marques Colston - NO ( @ SF )
8 - Brandon Marshall - MIA ( @ MIN )
9 - Calvin Johnson - DET ( PHI )
10 - Steve Smith - CAR ( TB )
11 - DeSean Jackson - PHI ( @ DET )
12 - Wes Welker - NE ( @ NYJ )
13 - Hakeem Nicks - NYG ( @ IND )
14 - Anquan Boldin - BAL ( @ CIN )
15 - Randy Moss - NE ( @ NYJ )
16 - Chad Ochocinco - CIN ( BAL )
17 - Santana Moss - WAS ( HOU )
18 - Steve Smith - NYG ( @ IND )
19 - Dwayne Bowe - KC ( @ CLE )
20 - Hines Ward - PIT ( @ TEN )
21 - Michael Crabtree - SF ( NO )
22 - Percy Harvin - MIN ( MIA )
23 - Malcom Floyd - SD ( JAC )
24 - Dez Bryant - DAL ( CHI )
25 - Pierre Garcon - IND ( NYG )
26 - Terrell Owens - CIN ( BAL )
27 - Donald Driver - GB ( BUF )
28 - Jeremy Maclin - PHI ( @ DET )
29 - Steve Breaston - ARZ ( @ ATL )
30 - Johnny Knox - CHI ( @ DAL )
31 - Austin Collie - IND ( NYG )
32 - Mike Sims-Walker - JAC ( @ SD )
33 - Jabar Gaffney - DEN ( SEA )
34 - Mike Williams - TB ( @ CAR )
35 - Mike Wallace - PIT ( @ TEN )
36 - Devin Aromashodu - CHI ( @ DAL )
37 - Eddie Royal - DEN ( SEA )
38 - Mark Clayton - STL ( @ OAK )
39 - Mike Williams - SEA ( @ DEN )
40 - Legedu Naanee - SD ( JAC )
41 - Robert Meachem - NO ( @ SF )
42 - Louis Murphy - OAK ( STL )
43 - Bernard Berrian - MIN ( MIA )
44 - Lee Evans - BUF ( @ GB )
45 - Mohammed Massaquoi - CLE ( KC )
46 - Derrick Mason - BAL ( @ CIN )
47 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh - BAL ( @ CIN )
48 - Jerricho Cotchery - NYJ ( NE )
49 - Jacoby Jones - HOU ( @ WAS )
50 - Nate Washington - TEN ( PIT )
51 - Mike Thomas - JAC ( @ SD )
52 - Braylon Edwards - NYJ ( NE )
53 - Devery Henderson - NO ( @ SF )
54 - Danny Amendola - STL ( @ OAK )
55 - Devin Hester - CHI ( @ DAL )
56 - Chris Chambers - KC ( @ CLE )
57 - Mario Manningham - NYG ( @ IND )
58 - Kevin Walter - HOU ( @ WAS )
59 - Nate Burleson - DET ( PHI )
60 - Deion Branch - SEA ( @ DEN )

Tight End
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Antonio Gates - SD ( JAC )
2 - Dallas Clark - IND ( NYG )
3 - Vernon Davis - SF ( NO )
4 - Jermichael Finley - GB ( BUF )
5 - Visanthe Shiancoe - MIN ( MIA )
6 - Jason Witten - DAL ( CHI )
7 - Brent Celek - PHI ( @ DET )
8 - Chris Cooley - WAS ( HOU )
9 - Zach Miller - OAK ( STL )
10 - Tony Gonzalez - ATL ( ARZ )
11 - Kellen Winslow - TB ( @ CAR )
12 - John Carlson - SEA ( @ DEN )
13 - Todd Heap - BAL ( @ CIN )
14 - Dustin Keller - NYJ ( NE )
15 - Heath Miller - PIT ( @ TEN )
16 - Jermaine Gresham - CIN ( BAL )
17 - Owen Daniels - HOU ( @ WAS )
18 - Tony Scheffler - DET ( PHI )
19 - Jeremy Shockey - NO ( @ SF )
20 - Greg Olsen - CHI ( @ DAL )
21 - Marcedes Lewis - JAC ( @ SD )
22 - Aaron Hernandez - NE ( @ NYJ )
23 - Bo Scaife - TEN ( PIT )
24 - Benjamin Watson - CLE ( KC )
25 - Rob Gronkowski - NE ( @ NYJ )

Kicker
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Nate Kaeding - SD ( JAC )
2 - Ryan Longwell - MIN ( MIA )
3 - Mason Crosby - GB ( BUF )
4 - David Akers - PHI ( @ DET )
5 - Rob Bironas - TEN ( PIT )
6 - Garrett Hartley - NO ( @ SF )
7 - Stephen Gostkowski - NE ( @ NYJ )
8 - Matt Prater - DEN ( SEA )
9 - Neil Rackers - HOU ( @ WAS )
10 - Jeff Reed - PIT ( @ TEN )
11 - Matt Bryant - ATL ( ARZ )
12 - Sebastian Janikowski - OAK ( STL )
13 - Adam Vinatieri - IND ( NYG )
14 - Dan Carpenter - MIA ( @ MIN )
15 - Lawrence Tynes - NYG ( @ IND )
16 - Robbie Gould - CHI ( @ DAL )
17 - Jay Feely - ARZ ( @ ATL )
18 - John Kasay - CAR ( TB )
19 - David Buehler - DAL ( CHI )
20 - Josh Brown - STL ( @ OAK )
21 - Mike Nugent - CIN ( BAL )
22 - Joe Nedney - SF ( NO )
23 - Phil Dawson - CLE ( KC )
24 - Olindo Mare - SEA ( @ DEN )
25 - Ryan Succop - KC ( @ CLE )

Defense
Rank - Team ( Opp )
1 - Packers ( BUF )
2 - Eagles ( @ DET )
3 - Cowboys ( CHI )
4 - Vikings ( MIA )
5 - Ravens ( @ CIN )
6 - Jets ( NE )
7 - Saints ( @ SF )
8 - Patriots ( @ NYJ )
9 - Steelers ( @ TEN )
10 - Titans ( PIT )
11 - Chargers ( JAC )
12 - Falcons ( ARZ )
13 - Raiders ( STL )
14 - 49ers ( NO )
15 - Texans ( @ WAS )
16 - Broncos ( SEA )
17 - Dolphins ( @ MIN )
18 - Bengals ( BAL )
19 - Panthers ( TB )
20 - Chiefs ( @ CLE )
21 - Cardinals ( @ ATL )
22 - Buccaneers ( @ CAR )
23 - Bears ( @ DAL )
24 - Browns ( KC )
25 - Redskins ( HOU )
26 - Giants ( @ IND )
27 - Seahawks ( @ DEN )
28 - Colts ( NYG )
29 - Rams ( @ OAK )
30 - Lions ( PHI )