All in Sports Fantasy Advice
Week 5 - Football Breakdown and Rankings

What were they thinking? That is the question on everyone’s mind this Wednesday morning. What exactly were the Patriots thinking in trading Randy Moss? Looking at it from the outside, it simply does not make sense.

In case you are just now waking up, the Patriots sent Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings for a third-round pick in 2011. That’s right. They traded (arguably) the second most talented wide receiver behind Andre Johnson. In case you doubt that, go back and watch the catch he made over Revis in Week 2.

We all know why the Vikings made the move. Brett Favre did not come back “one more year” to miss the playoffs, or not have one more a shot at a Super Bowl win. The Vikings have the makings to contend, and due to Favre’s slow start and Sidney Rice’s injury, the situation was not promising. Knowing this year might be their best chance, the Vikings went for it all and brought in Moss.

The confusing and strange part is why the Patriots made the move. Moss is a free agent after this season, and it appeared the two sides were not going to work out a long-term deal. Nevertheless, there was still plenty of time, and the Patriots are a Super Bowl contender in their own right. For this season, this trade actually hurts their chances. Welker will now be double teamed more, and inexperienced Brandon Tate is thrust into the starting role opposite him.

We will probably never understand the thoughts behind this – who really ever understands Bill Belichick (other than that he loves draft picks). In any case, we can learn something from this trade for Fantasy purposes. The fact is we never truly know what owners are thinking.

What does that mean for you? Don’t base whether or not you offer a trade on what you think the other owner is planning or thinking. Many owners won’t offer top teams trades because they assume they won’t want to trade since they are winning. That is why owners and teams will miss out on benefiting themselves while that same team trades with someone else.

Even at 4-0, teams cannot rest on their laurels. It’s a long season, and no team is perfect. The teams that are doing well right now are thinking long-term and in doing so, might be looking at playoff matchups or bolstering a certain position. This is where you can take advantage. Defensive matchups are something to think about, but are too often overrated. An elite player will produce no matter the opponent. Also, if you need to fill a few holes yourself, this is where you could turn one elite player into two or three studs. There are still plenty of bye-weeks to cover and even injuries that will greatly affect outcomes.

The lesson here is do not assume. There are likely other teams in the NFL who would have also given up a third-rounder for Moss, or even ones who would have given the same or more for Marshawn Lynch (traded for a fourth-rounder to Seattle). The problem is, they might have just never asked…only if, only if. So, don’t ignore winning teams, or any team for that matter, because you assume you know what people are thinking. Everyone knows what happens when you assume…

Settling Up Week 4

Top Pair (players who guaranteed a good week)

Peyton Manning, Arian Foster, Calvin Johnson, Antonio Gates

Manning finally missed out on throwing for three touchdowns. Honestly, who cares when he still throws two of them and goes over 300 yards for the third time this year. Foster rushed for over 100 yards for the third time and added a TD. He is officially a top 5 RB going forward. We all know Calvin Johnson has the talent, possibly more than any other WR – he just needs someone to get him the ball. Shaun Hill finally did last week for 86 yards and two scores. Antonio Gates is a WR1 in a TE body. Another week, another 100+ yards and two TDs for the big man.

River Rat (player(s) who surprised everyone)

Terrell Owens, Shaun Hill, Patriots D

I had a buddy call me Sunday morning asking to start Nate Washington or T.O. I said to definitely start Owens. Did I expect 10 catches, 222 yards and a touchdown? No, no one did. As I mentioned, Shaun Hill got Calvin the ball this week, and actually had an all-around solid game. He’s performed fairly well while filling in for Stafford. The entire Patriots defense was amazing this week. Do you realize in many leagues, they were the top scoring “player”? Four interceptions, three touchdowns (two defensive and one returning) and throw in a couple sacks to boot. Wow.

Gut Shot (player(s) who let everyone down)

Jay Cutler, Chris Johnson, Brandon Marshall

We can’t blame Cutler too much for sustaining a concussion. However, if he would have thrown the ball away a few times, the Giants defense might have not pounded him into the turf…literally. Where is CJ2K every-other week? For the second time this year (on even numbered weeks – 2 and 4) Johnson has failed to reach 100 yards or score. This is not first-pick-of-the-draft production. Brandon Marshall had the most favorable looking week of all WRs. He was facing a secondary that has been burned all season, and he is one of the best WRs in the NFL. Too bad both Henne and the Dolphins offense let him and us down.

All In or Muck Em? (Hot or Not)

All In (Hot)

Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Peyton Hillis, Reggie Wayne, Anquan Boldin, Hakeem Nicks, Antonio Gates, Zach Miller

I’m considering changing this category to “Manning Club,” yea, he’s that hot right now. Rivers has been on quite a roll with multiple TD passes in each game. Foster has taken the worry away from owners thinking he might be a flash in the pan. Minnesota just traded for Randy Moss, which means even better numbers for an already high-performing Peterson. Cleveland’s offense will be the only thing that can hold back Hillis, as he proved again he can be a full-time RB. Reggie Wayne and Anquan Boldin simply continue to put up great numbers even with the amount of wear-and-tear over their careers. The Giants are thrilled with Nicks’ emergence, as he’s taking the No. 1 receiver role in New York. We already talked about how great Gates is, but AFC West opponent Zach Miller has been near as good. The past two weeks he has shown great chemistry with Bruce Gradkowski.

Muck Em (Not)

Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Cedric Benson, Michael Turner, Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, Mike Sims-Walker, Tony Gonzalez, Vernon Davis

McNabb continues to put up mediocre numbers for Washington; definitely not what the Redskins or his owners were hoping for. Eli is still looking to find his consistency, or even his 2009 version of himself. The Ravens are hoping Flacco can put the tough matchups behind him because the schedule looks favorable (finally). It was another disappointing week for Rice owners. He was supposed to start, and then Willis McGahee took the majority of snaps before getting hurt himself. Benson is reverting back to his Chicago days, but the Bengals are hoping this is not permanent (or get ready for Bernard Scott sightings). Michael Turner continues to tease with huge games, then lackluster performances at other times (more of the latter has been happening). It appears Fitzgerald actually can’t put up numbers even without a quarterback…I know that technically makes sense as you need someone to throw the ball, but you know what I mean. Moss only had one great game in New England, but with his trade to Minnesota, don’t expect to see him listed here again. MSW – Most Starts Wasted. Wait, that’s not what MSW stands for? Well, it actually should be at this point. He is extremely talented but disappears way too much. Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis are two of the better tight ends in the league. Too bad they both only have one game each where they have shown it.

What’s the Deal for Week 5?

Ace in the Hole (players who will increase your odds of winning)

Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, Cedric Benson, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, Mark Clayton, Chris Cooley

Manning and Brees, ho hum. Let’s get away from the obvious choices with Matt Ryan. The Browns pass defense is abysmal, and Ryan should be able to take full advantage of it. MJD showed why he is still one of the five best backs in the league last week and now faces one of the worst run defenses in Buffalo. Jackson is still working his way back from a groin injury, but as seen last week, it won’t keep him off the field. There is a good chance Detroit won’t keep him from a good day either. It’s bounce-back time for Benson, and this may be a key game. If he cannot put up good numbers against the Bucs, he may start seeing less carries. As I mentioned, the Falcons should have a big day against the Browns, and White will be one of the beneficiaries. Calling for back-to-back big weeks for Calvin? Yes, I might just be crazy…but, St. Louis won’t pose much of a threat. On the other side of that game is Mark Clayton – Mr. Bradford’s favorite target. He’s a great play especially in PPR leagues this year. Cooley is one of the better pass-catching tight ends, and Green Bay has struggled with middle of the field routes. Cooley will have a nice day this week.

The Flop (players who will let you down)

Kevin Kolb, Mark Sanchez, LaDainian Tomlinson, Fred Jackson, Steve Smith (NYG), Jeremy Maclin, Greg Olsen

Kolb looked rusty in replacing Michael Vick last week. Then again, you have to look good first to look rusty, and he hasn’t really done that this year. Minnesota is coming off a bye and will be pumped up with their new toy in Randy Moss. Expect the excitement to carry over to the defense, and thereby give Sanchez fits all day. The same goes for LDT. The Vikings’ run defense is stout, and you can’t expect Tomlinson to break 100 yards against this team. Fred Jackson is one of the hotter pickups with Marshawn Lynch heading out of town. Don’t get overly excited though. Spiller will still see time, and the Buffalo offense and OL is still plain awful. Nicks has taken the No. 1 receiver role in NY as mentioned, and Smith has suffered. He still has good value in PPR leagues, but high yardage totals and even touchdowns are hard to come by. One of the players seeing his stock drop with Vick out is Jeremy Maclin. Kolb just doesn’t look downfield enough, and Maclin’s value was already a tad high due to his touchdowns. The Bears offense is better under Mike Martz, but a Martz offense also means inconsistency for tight ends. Carolina has a decent pass defense so Olsen will have another slow week.

Playing the Odds (Pickups and Drops)

The Turn (players who will help you soon, grab if you can)

Kevin Kolb, Kyle Orton, Sam Bradford, Ryan Torain, Michael Bush, Marshawn Lynch, Fred Jackson, LeGarrette Blount, Kenny Britt, Mike Thomas, Brandon Pettigrew

It’s been a long week so keeping it short and simple here. All of these guys deserve to be owned in 12-team leagues. Easy as that.

Bluffed (players who thought would help, but won’t so fold them)

Based off a standard league, you can fold these players. And if I don’t put any back in The Turn, they are drop-worthy for the year.

Derek Anderson, Chad Henne, David Garrard, Alex Smith, Vince Young;

Lawrence Maroney, Jerome Harrison, Darren Sproles, Steve Slaton, Fred Taylor;

Mike Williams (SEA), Jerricho Cotchery, Mohamed Massaquoi, Devin Aromashodu, Laurent Robinson, Bernard Berrian, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, Darrius Heyward-Bay, Sidney Rice, Todd Heap

Week 5 Rankings
Quarterback
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Peyton Manning - IND ( KC )
2 - Drew Brees - NO ( @ ARZ )
3 - Aaron Rodgers - GB ( @ WAS )
4 - Philip Rivers - SD ( @ OAK )
5 - Tony Romo - DAL ( TEN )
6 - Matt Schaub - HOU ( NYG )
7 - Matt Ryan - ATL ( @ CLE )
8 - Eli Manning - NYG ( @ HOU )
9 - Jay Cutler - CHI ( @ CAR )
10 - Brett Favre - MIN ( @ NYJ )
11 - Joe Flacco - BAL ( DEN )
12 - Sam Bradford - STL ( @ DET )
13 - Kyle Orton - DEN ( @ BAL )
14 - Mark Sanchez - NYJ ( MIN )
15 - Shaun Hill - DET ( STL )
16 - David Garrard - JAC ( @ BUF )
17 - Donovan McNabb - WAS ( GB )
18 - Carson Palmer - CIN ( TB )
19 - Ryan Fitzpatrick - BUF ( JAC )
20 - Kevin Kolb - PHI ( @ SF )
21 - Bruce Gradkowski - OAK ( SD )
22 - Josh Freeman - TB ( @ CIN )
23 - Vince Young - TEN ( @ DAL )
24 - Alex Smith - SF ( PHI )
25 - Matt Cassel - KC ( @ IND )

Running Back
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Maurice Jones-Drew - JAC ( @ BUF )
2 - Arian Foster - HOU ( NYG )
3 - Frank Gore - SF ( PHI )
4 - Chris Johnson - TEN ( @ DAL )
5 - Adrian Peterson - MIN ( @ NYJ )
6 - Steven Jackson - STL ( @ DET )
7 - Michael Turner - ATL ( @ CLE )
8 - Cedric Benson - CIN ( TB )
9 - Peyton Hillis - CLE ( ATL )
10 - Ahmad Bradshaw - NYG ( @ HOU )
11 - Jahvid Best - DET ( STL )
12 - DeAngelo Williams - CAR ( CHI )
13 - Ryan Mathews - SD ( @ OAK )
14 - Jamaal Charles - KC ( @ IND )
15 - Ray Rice - BAL ( DEN )
16 - Joseph Addai - IND ( KC )
17 - LaDainian Tomlinson - NYJ ( MIN )
18 - Matt Forte - CHI ( @ CAR )
19 - Ryan Torain - WAS ( GB )
20 - Thomas Jones - KC ( @ IND )
21 - Darren McFadden - OAK ( SD )
22 - Beanie Wells - ARZ ( NO )
23 - Mike Tolbert - SD ( @ OAK )
24 - Pierre Thomas - NO ( @ ARZ )
25 - Fred Jackson - BUF ( JAC )
26 - Marion Barber - DAL ( TEN )
27 - Michael Bush - OAK ( SD )
28 - C.J. Spiller - BUF ( JAC )
29 - Tim Hightower - ARZ ( NO )
30 - Shonn Greene - NYJ ( MIN )
31 - Knowshon Moreno - DEN ( @ BAL )
32 - Jonathan Stewart - CAR ( CHI )
33 - Felix Jones - DAL ( TEN )
34 - Mike Bell - PHI ( @ SF )
35 - Brandon Jackson - GB ( @ WAS )
36 - Cadillac Williams - TB ( @ CIN )
37 - Willis McGahee - BAL ( DEN )
38 - Chris Ivory - NO ( @ ARZ )
39 - John Kuhn - GB ( @ WAS )
40 - Jason Snelling - ATL ( @ CLE )
41 - Ladell Betts - NO ( @ ARZ )
42 - Brandon Jacobs - NYG ( @ HOU )
43 - LeGarrette Blount - TB ( @ CIN )
44 - Correll Buckhalter - DEN ( @ BAL )
45 - Chester Taylor - CHI ( @ CAR )
46 - Laurence Maroney - DEN ( @ BAL )
47 - Darren Sproles - SD ( @ OAK )
48 - Kenneth Darby - STL ( @Det )
49 - Donald Brown - IND ( KC )
50 - Tashard Choice - DAL ( TEN )

Wide Receiver
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Reggie Wayne - IND ( KC )
2 - Miles Austin - DAL ( TEN )
3 - Roddy White - ATL ( @ CLE )
4 - Calvin Johnson - DET ( STL )
5 - Andre Johnson - HOU ( NYG )
6 - Greg Jennings - GB ( @ WAS )
7 - Hakeem Nicks - NYG ( @ HOU )
8 - Austin Collie - IND ( KC )
9 - Randy Moss - MIN ( @ NYJ )
10 - Anquan Boldin - BAL ( DEN )
11 - Larry Fitzgerald - ARZ ( NO )
12 - DeSean Jackson - PHI ( @ SF )
13 - Marques Colston - NO ( @ ARZ )
14 - Donald Driver - GB ( @ WAS )
15 - Mark Clayton - STL ( @ DET )
16 - Terrell Owens - CIN ( TB )
17 - Chad Ochocinco - CIN ( TB )
18 - Malcom Floyd - SD ( @ OAK )
19 - Steve Smith - NYG ( @ HOU )
20 - Santana Moss - WAS ( GB )
21 - Brandon Lloyd - DEN ( @ BAL )
22 - Lance Moore - NO ( @ ARZ )
23 - Jeremy Maclin - PHI ( @ SF )
24 - Percy Harvin - MIN ( @ NYJ )
25 - Braylon Edwards - NYJ ( MIN )
26 - Dwayne Bowe - KC ( @ IND )
27 - Johnny Knox - CHI ( @ CAR )
28 - Mike Williams - TB ( @ CIN )
29 - Mike Sims-Walker - JAC ( @ BUF )
30 - Santonio Holmes - NYJ ( MIN )
31 - Kevin Walter - HOU ( NYG )
32 - Eddie Royal - DEN ( @ BAL )
33 - Michael Crabtree - SF ( PHI )
34 - Jabar Gaffney - DEN ( @ BAL )
35 - Dez Bryant - DAL ( TEN )
36 - Louis Murphy - OAK ( SD )
37 - Derrick Mason - BAL ( DEN )
38 - Mario Manningham - NYG ( @ HOU )
39 - Devery Henderson - NO ( @ ARZ )
40 - Kenny Britt - TEN ( @ DAL )
41 - Lee Evans - BUF ( JAC )
42 - Devin Hester - CHI ( @ CAR )
43 - Legedu Naanee - SD ( @ OAK )
44 - Mike Thomas - JAC ( @ BUF )
45 - Jacoby Jones - HOU ( NYG )
46 - Nate Washington - TEN ( @ DAL )
47 - Robert Meachem - NO ( @ ARZ )
48 - Roy Williams - DAL ( TEN )
49 - Pierre Garcon - IND ( KC )
50 - Steve Johnson - BUF ( Jac )

Tight End
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Antonio Gates - SD ( @ OAK )
2 - Dallas Clark - IND ( KC )
3 - Jermichael Finley - GB ( @ WAS )
4 - Dustin Keller - NYJ ( MIN )
5 - Vernon Davis - SF ( PHI )
6 - Zach Miller - OAK ( SD )
7 - Chris Cooley - WAS ( GB )
8 - Visanthe Shiancoe - MIN ( @ NYJ )
9 - Tony Gonzalez - ATL ( @ CLE )
10 - Brent Celek - PHI ( @ SF )
11 - Jason Witten - DAL ( TEN )
12 - Kellen Winslow - TB ( @ CIN )
13 - Greg Olsen - CHI ( @ CAR )
14 - Marcedes Lewis - JAC ( @ BUF )
15 - Jeremy Shockey - NO ( @ ARZ )
16 - Tony Moeaki - KC ( @ IND )
17 - Brandon Pettigrew - DET ( STL )
18 - Tony Scheffler - DET ( STL )
19 - Benjamin Watson - CLE ( ATL )
20 - Kevin Boss - NYG ( @Hou )
21 - Jermaine Gresham - CIN ( TB )
22 - Todd Heap - BAL ( DEN )
23 - Owen Daniels - HOU ( NYG )
24 - Joel Dreessen - HOU ( NYG )
25 - Bo Scaife - TEN ( @ DAL )

Kicker
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Neil Rackers - HOU ( NYG )
2 - Matt Prater - DEN ( @ BAL )
3 - David Akers - PHI ( @ SF )
4 - Rob Bironas - TEN ( @ DAL )
5 - Mason Crosby - GB ( @ WAS )
6 - Nate Kaeding - SD ( @ OAK )
7 - Ryan Longwell - MIN ( @ NYJ )
8 - Matt Bryant - ATL ( @ CLE )
9 - Robbie Gould - CHI ( @ CAR )
10 - Sebastian Janikowski - OAK ( SD )
11 - John Carney - NO ( @ ARZ )
12 - Nick Folk - NYJ ( MIN )
13 - Mike Nugent - CIN ( TB )
14 - Ryan Succop - KC ( @ IND )
15 - Adam Vinatieri - IND ( KC )
16 - Graham Gano - WAS ( GB )
17 - Josh Brown - STL ( @ DET )
18 - David Buehler - DAL ( TEN )
19 - Jay Feely - ARZ ( NO )
20 - Jason Hanson - DET ( STL )
21 - Lawrence Tynes - NYG ( @ HOU )
22 - Billy Cundiff - BAL ( DEN )
23 - Rian Lindell - BUF ( JAC )
24 - Josh Scobee - JAC ( @ BUF )
25 - John Kasay - CAR ( CHI )

Defense
Rank - Team ( Opp )
1 - Packers ( @ WAS )
2 - Jets ( MIN )
3 - Saints ( @ ARZ )
4 - Bears ( @ CAR )
5 - Eagles ( @ SF )
6 - Ravens ( DEN )
7 - Chargers ( @ OAK )
8 - Bengals ( TB )
9 - Cowboys ( TEN )
10 - Vikings ( @ NYJ )
11 - Falcons ( @ CLE )
12 - 49ers ( PHI )
13 - Giants ( @ HOU )
14 - Titans ( @ DAL )
15 - Texans ( NYG )
16 - Colts ( KC )
17 - Rams ( @ DET )
18 - Broncos ( @ BAL )
19 - Redskins ( GB )
20 - Panthers ( CHI )
21 - Buccaneers ( @ CIN )
22 - Jaguars ( @ BUF )
23 - Chiefs ( @ IND )
24 - Bills ( JAC )
25 - Browns ( ATL )