Week 4 - Football Breakdown and Rankings
A bad, quick decision ended up costing me dearly the summer after high school. The cost was not only monetary, although I could have saved myself hundreds at the time and more down the road.
I was driving down a local highway in the afternoon, going (near) the speed limit. It was a sunny day and I was sporting my stylish Oakley wrap-around sunglasses (ah, fads). My nose gets a little irritated when I wear glasses, so I happened to take off the Oakleys for a second to rub the bridge of my nose. The glasses fell off my lap and down towards my feet. Now here is where the poor decision came in.
I had two choices to make: leave the sunglasses and possibly break them by stepping on them, or reach down while driving with one hand and try to rescue them. I chose the latter. Stupid choice. Because I was bending down, my eyes could only see the top halves of the vehicles in front of me. Know what I couldn’t see? The break-lights. Therefore, as everyone started to slow down, and then hit their breaks even harder…I missed the initial slowing down because I couldn’t see the break-lights in front of me. I’ll give you a chance to guess what happened next. If you said I slammed on my breaks hard, but too late, and had my Ford ZX2 slide under the pickup truck in front of me, destroying the front end of my car, you win! (Okay, that wasn’t too hard to guess).
I went from having to spend $90 on a new pair of Oakleys (maybe) to a $500 deductible, ticket cost for “following too close” (I wasn’t, but when I pointed that out to the officer, he asked if I would like reckless driving instead…I quickly said, “no”), and increased insurance bills. Talk about a regrettable decision.
Well, here we are heading into Week 4 of the Fantasy Football season, and I see some people making regrettable decisions. Owners are coming up on a potential accident situation, and it’s time to make choices that can impact the rest of your season. You need to evaluate where you are at, and choose whether to sacrifice a small amount (some Oakleys) or risk it all and possibly ruin your season.
The majority of teams are likely to be 2-1 or 1-2 at this point. The 3-0 and 0-3 teams have either ran into some good or bad luck. Anyone with two or three wins should play things normally. The good thing for teams with a winning record is that it allows you be a little riskier in buying low on some players (Calvin Johnson, Crabtree, DeAngelo Williams, etc.). These teams should work players’ values by selling high on some of the sleepers that hit so far, while buying low from panicking owners.
The 1-2 and 0-3 teams are the ones headed towards a possible wreck. It’s possible you just made some poor decisions and/or bought into players that you shouldn’t have. At the same time, it could be mostly bad luck that got you here. If it’s luck, take a similar approach as the winning teams would. Keep in mind, you may need to be a bit more aggressive and take more risk as another loss almost guarantees no playoff appearance.
At the same time, don’t, and I can’t express this enough, sell off your elite players if it’s bad luck. You would be choosing the wreck over the sunglasses. You may need to just stomp on those glasses, pump the breaks and look ahead. That means dump your players that have no value anymore (I too bought into Michael Bush, but now DMC is in full control). Don’t keep players who have lost all of their value to you because they are “yours”. I wrote about that early on this year. Owners get too attached to “their guys.” Go out and grab the potential breakout players like Louis Murphy, Peyton Hillis, Aaron Hernandez, etc.
If you are losing because of poor choices and maybe even bad luck added on, hit that gas and try to make a break for it. Either look to next year and see what you can put together for keepers, or take all the risk you can for the biggest reward. It’s pedal to the metal for you at this point.
In any case, don’t ever take your eyes off the road! Figuratively or literally (trust me on that last one).
Settling Up Week 3
Top Pair (players who guaranteed a good week)
Michael Vick, Anquan Boldin, Adrian Peterson
Okay so one of these names is no surprise. Peterson abused the hapless Lions defense for 160 yards and two scores…yawn. Michael Vick continues to impress more each week. Not only did he pass for three TDs, he ran one in while not committing a turnover. Lastly, Boldin continues his campaign to prove he is a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver by putting up 142 yards and three touchdowns against Cleveland.
River Rat (player(s) who surprised everyone)
Austin Collie, Lance Moore
Who was Peyton Manning’s flavor of the week? Meet Austin Collie. Collie was slated for slot receiver duties at the start of the year, but has taken full advantage of Pierre Garcon being hurt. He is making a case to play opposite Reggie Wayne weekly. Welcome back Lance Moore, from 2008 that is. Yes, the last time Moore eclipsed 100 yards receiving was Week 12 of 2008. The Saints receiving core is iffy on who to trust each week, but it’s possible Moore can return to Fantasy relevance with Reggie Bush out.
Gut Shot (player who let everyone down)
Matt Forte
Ah, where have all the proclamations that Forte was back to 2008 form gone? I’ll tell you; those same people have seen his last two games. He’s only rushed for 29 yards each game the past two weeks. The Giants defense struggles against the run, and if he wants to show us those two games are just off-weeks, it’s now or never.
All In (Hot)
Peyton Manning, Mike Vick, Philip Rivers, Darren McFadden, Peyton Hillis, Austin Collie, DeSean Jackson, Antonio Gates, Dustin Keller
Ho hum, another three TD performance for Peyton Manning…next! Vick now has six touchdown passes with no interceptions. Is it possible he’s better than ever before? Rivers is averaging 366 yards a game with at least two TDs in each. With Ryan Mathews still iffy, don’t expect the team to stop leaning on his shoulder(s). Can we finally trust Darren McFadden? It’s tough not too with another 100 yard game, this time with a rushing touchdown. Someone should have told Baltimore about Peyton Hillis before the game, not that it would have helped. After rushing for 144 yards and a score, Hillis gets another big test in a strong Cincinnati defense this week. It’s time to see how good he really is. Collie was already mentioned, but just in case you need affirmation, he is the leading Fantasy WR right now. Yes, leading everyone! DeSean Jackson has made people forget about his slow first game. He’s already vaulted himself back into the top five with the past two performances. Gates is just like Manning in that he’s great every week, but look out for Dustin Keller. He’s Sanchez’s new favorite target and is moving up the charts fast.
Muck Em (Not)
Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Ray Rice, DeAngelo Williams, Steve Smith, Mike Sims-Walker, Vernon Davis
McNabb was supposed to help turn the Redskins offense around but has struggled to do so. He had a gift-wrapped matchup against the Rams, but only managed one TD. It’s quite possible that no one can help that receiving core. Eli gets a return mention just like big brother, although to the bad side of things. He did almost throw for 400 yards, but poor decisions and turnovers equaled a long day and no touchdown passes. Rice has struggled to build off his 2009 breakout year, and now he hurt his knee. Willis McGahee is waiting in the wings for any opportunity he can get. DeAngelo Williams and the entire Panthers offense struggled again. With Clausen at QB, Williams may end up on of the most disappointing early picks of 2010. His teammate, Steve Smith, is stuck in the same situation and relies more on Clausen than Williams, which is not good for him. The Jaguars look to be one of the worst team in the league, and their offense is showing that along with Mike Sims-Walker. If he can’t put up good numbers against Indy, it will be a long year. Another offense in trouble, and so much so that they fired the coordinator is San Francisco. The game plan and Alex Smith’s woes are keeping Vernon Davis from finding the end zone and maximizing his potential.
What’s the Deal for Week 4?
Ace in the Hole (players who will increase your odds of winning)
Peyton Manning, Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers, Michael Turner, Arian Foster, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, Jermichael Finley
Peyton Manning and Michael Vick – they have been covered in depth; great plays for your team, easy as that. Aaron Rodgers was said by many to be the best QB going into the season. He has a real chance to be the best one this week against Detroit. Arian Foster has not scored since the Week 1 outburst, but the Raiders run defense is one of the worst, and there is a good chance he could this week. The 49ers defense was thought to be one of the best in the league. They are anything but that. Michael Turner and teammate Roddy White should both have big days. The Patriots pass defense cannot stop anyone this year, and now Brandon Marshall comes knocking after torching the Jets for 166 yards and a TD. As mentioned, Aaron Rodgers should have a great day in store, and if he does, Finley will be one of the main beneficiaries.
The Flop (players who will let you down)
Donovan McNabb, Joe Flacco, Ray Rice, Peyton Hillis, Hines Ward, Marques Colston, Heath Miller
McNabb won’t have much success in trying to turn things around this week. He is back in Philly for the first time as an opponent, and that is a scary thought for him. Flacco looked great last week for the first time this year, but now gets their division rival in the Pittsburgh Steelers. Don’t expect Polamalu or the Steelers to let a game like that happen for Flacco against them. As mentioned, Ray Rice is hobbled by a knee injury, and the Steelers are the last team any running back wants to face. The Saints spread the ball around too much for any wide receiver to be a guaranteed play. Plus, the Panthers secondary is quite good so it will tough for Colston to put up big numbers this week. Hines Ward will likely continue to struggle until Ben Roethlisberger returns as will teammate Heath Miller.
Playing the Odds (Pickups and Drops)
The Turn (players who will help you soon, grab if you can)
Josh Freeman, Matt Hasselbeck, Peyton Hillis, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Ryan Torain, LeGarrette Blount, Louis Murphy, Lance Moore
Freeman returns from a bye in Week 5 and as mentioned last week, he can make for a nice fill in when your QB is on his bye. Hasselbeck is along the same lines. He won’t put up gaudy numbers, but he is solid enough to play for a fill-in week. I don’t need to go in depth on why you should grab Hillis (if even possible). BJGE is the new lead back in New England, but as I warn people, Forrest Gump was actually talking about the Patriots backfield when he said, “You never know what you’re gonna get.” Torain and Blount make two good sleepers as the RBs in front of them are showing their wear and lacking in production. Louis Murphy is the lead wide receiver in Oakland and has nice chemistry with Gradkowski. As for Lance Moore, again the Saints wide receivers are risky plays just like Patriots running backs, but you could do worse for a bye-week play at WR.
Bluffed (players who thought would help, but won’t so fold them)
Based off a standard league, you can fold these players. And if I don’t put any back in The Turn, they are drop-worthy for the year.
Carson Palmer, Derek Anderson, David Garrard, Alex Smith, Vince Young; Steve Slaton, Michael Bush, Brandon Jacobs; Mike Williams (SEA), Jerricho Cotchery, Mohamed Massaquoi, Devin Aromashodu, Laurent Robinson, Bernard Berrian, Vincent Jackson, Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, Heath Miller
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Peyton Manning - IND ( @ JAC )
2 - Aaron Rodgers - GB ( DET )
3 - Drew Brees - NO ( CAR )
4 - Philip Rivers - SD ( ARZ )
5 - Tom Brady - NE ( @ MIA )
6 - Michael Vick - PHI ( WAS )
7 - Matt Schaub - HOU ( @ OAK )
8 - Jay Cutler - CHI ( @ NYG )
9 - Matt Ryan - ATL ( SF )
10 - Kyle Orton - DEN ( @ TEN )
11 - Eli Manning - NYG ( CHI )
12 - Donovan McNabb - WAS ( @ PHI )
13 - Chad Henne - MIA ( NE )
14 - Carson Palmer - CIN ( @ CLE )
15 - Mark Sanchez - NYJ ( @ BUF )
16 - Bruce Gradkowski - OAK ( HOU )
17 - Matt Hasselbeck - SEA ( @ STL )
18 - Joe Flacco - BAL ( @ PIT )
19 - Vince Young - TEN ( DEN )
20 - Sam Bradford - STL ( SEA )
21 - David Garrard - JAC ( IND )
22 - Alex Smith - SF ( @ ATL )
23 - Shaun Hill - DET ( @ GB )
24 - Derek Anderson - ARZ ( @ SD )
25 - Ryan Fitzpatrick - BUF ( NYJ )
Runningback
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Chris Johnson - TEN ( DEN )
2 - Michael Turner - ATL ( SF )
3 - Arian Foster - HOU ( @ OAK )
4 - Frank Gore - SF ( @ ATL )
5 - Maurice Jones-Drew - JAC ( IND )
6 - Cedric Benson - CIN ( @ CLE )
7 - Pierre Thomas - NO ( CAR )
8 - Darren McFadden - OAK ( HOU )
9 - LeSean McCoy - PHI ( WAS )
10 - Rashard Mendenhall - PIT ( BAL )
11 - Matt Forte - CHI ( @ NYG )
12 - Ahmad Bradshaw - NYG ( CHI )
13 - LaDainian Tomlinson - NYJ ( @ BUF )
14 - DeAngelo Williams - CAR ( @ NO )
15 - Steven Jackson - STL ( SEA )
16 - Peyton Hillis - CLE ( CIN )
17 - Ronnie Brown - MIA ( NE )
18 - Ray Rice - BAL ( @ PIT )
19 - Jahvid Best - DET ( @ GB )
20 - Joseph Addai - IND ( @ JAC )
21 - Beanie Wells - ARZ ( @ SD )
22 - Shonn Greene - NYJ ( @ BUF )
23 - Justin Forsett - SEA ( @ STL )
24 - Ryan Mathews - SD ( ARZ )
25 - Mike Tolbert - SD ( ARZ )
26 - Clinton Portis - WAS ( @ PHI )
27 - Benjarvus Green-Ellis - NE ( @ MIA )
28 - Brandon Jackson - GB ( DET )
29 - Marshawn Lynch - BUF ( NYJ )
30 - Laurence Maroney - DEN ( @ TEN )
31 - Jonathan Stewart - CAR ( @ NO )
32 - Tim Hightower - ARZ ( @ SD )
33 - John Kuhn - GB ( DET )
34 - Ricky Williams - MIA ( NE )
35 - C.J. Spiller - BUF ( NYJ )
36 - Donald Brown - IND ( @ JAC )
37 - Jason Snelling - ATL ( SF )
38 - Willis McGahee - BAL ( @ PIT )
39 - Correll Buckhalter - DEN ( @ TEN )
40 - Brandon Jacobs - NYG ( CHI )
41 - Ryan Torain - WAS ( @ PHI )
42 - Fred Jackson - BUF ( NYJ )
43 - Bernard Scott - CIN ( @ CLE )
44 - Michael Bush - OAK ( HOU )
45 - Darren Sproles - SD ( ARZ )
46 - Chester Taylor - CHI ( @ NYG )
47 - Fred Taylor - NE ( @ MIA )
48 - Kenneth Darby - STL ( SEA )
49 - Chris Ivory - NO ( CAR )
50 - Maurice Morris - DET ( @ GB )
Wide Receiver
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Brandon Marshall - MIA ( NE )
2 - Randy Moss - NE ( @ MIA )
3 - Roddy White - ATL ( SF )
4 - Reggie Wayne - IND ( @ JAC )
5 - DeSean Jackson - PHI ( WAS )
6 - Andre Johnson - HOU ( @ OAK )
7 - Greg Jennings - GB ( DET )
8 - Austin Collie - IND ( @ JAC )
9 - Larry Fitzgerald - ARZ ( @ SD )
10 - Anquan Boldin - BAL ( @ PIT )
11 - Chad Ochocinco - CIN ( @ CLE )
12 - Wes Welker - NE ( @ MIA )
13 - Calvin Johnson - DET ( @ GB )
14 - Jeremy Maclin - PHI ( WAS )
15 - Santana Moss - WAS ( @ PHI )
16 - Donald Driver - GB ( DET )
17 - Steve Smith - NYG ( CHI )
18 - Hakeem Nicks - NYG ( CHI )
19 - Marques Colston - NO ( CAR )
20 - Malcom Floyd - SD ( ARZ )
21 - Mark Clayton - STL ( SEA )
22 - Louis Murphy - OAK ( HOU )
23 - Johnny Knox - CHI ( @ NYG )
24 - Steve Smith - CAR ( @ NO )
25 - Mike Sims-Walker - JAC ( IND )
26 - Hines Ward - PIT ( BAL )
27 - Mike Wallace - PIT ( BAL )
28 - Terrell Owens - CIN ( @ CLE )
29 - Kevin Walter - HOU ( @ OAK )
30 - Braylon Edwards - NYJ ( @ BUF )
31 - Eddie Royal - DEN ( @ TEN )
32 - Michael Crabtree - SF ( @ ATL )
33 - Lance Moore - NO ( CAR )
34 - Jacoby Jones - HOU ( @ OAK )
35 - Devin Hester - CHI ( @ NYG )
36 - Jabar Gaffney - DEN ( @ TEN )
37 - Lee Evans - BUF ( NYJ )
38 - Legedu Naanee - SD ( ARZ )
39 - Mario Manningham - NYG ( CHI )
40 - Nate Washington - TEN ( DEN )
41 - Devery Henderson - NO ( CAR )
42 - Demaryius Thomas - DEN ( @ TEN )
43 - Brandon Lloyd - DEN ( @ TEN )
44 - Josh Cribbs - CLE ( CIN )
45 - Derrick Mason - BAL ( @ PIT )
46 - Kenny Britt - TEN ( DEN )
47 - Pierre Garcon - IND ( @ JAC )
48 - Darrius Heyward-Bey - OAK ( HOU )
49 - Mike Thomas - JAC ( IND )
50 - Robert Meachem - NO ( CAR )
Tight End
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Antonio Gates - SD ( ARZ )
2 - Dallas Clark - IND ( @ JAC )
3 - Jermichael Finley - GB ( DET )
4 - Vernon Davis - SF ( @ ATL )
5 - Tony Gonzalez - ATL ( SF )
6 - Dustin Keller - NYJ ( @ BUF )
7 - Chris Cooley - WAS ( @ PHI )
8 - Zach Miller - OAK ( HOU )
9 - Aaron Hernandez - NE ( @ MIA )
10 - Brent Celek - PHI ( WAS )
11 - Greg Olsen - CHI ( @ NYG )
12 - John Carlson - SEA ( @ STL )
13 - Jeremy Shockey - NO ( CAR )
14 - Marcedes Lewis - JAC ( IND )
15 - Tony Scheffler - DET ( @ GB )
16 - Owen Daniels - HOU ( @ OAK )
17 - Jermaine Gresham - CIN ( @ CLE )
18 - Heath Miller - PIT ( BAL )
19 - Todd Heap - BAL ( @ PIT )
20 - Rob Gronkowski - NE ( @ MIA )
21 - Kevin Boss - NYG ( CHI )
22 - Brandon Pettigrew - DET ( @ GB )
23 - Anthony Fasano - MIA ( NE )
24 - Benjamin Watson - CLE ( CIN )
25 - Bo Scaife - TEN ( DEN )
Kicker
Rank - Player - Team ( Opp )
1 - Mason Crosby - GB ( DET )
2 - Nate Kaeding - SD ( ARZ )
3 - Stephen Gostkowski - NE ( @ MIA )
4 - Neil Rackers - HOU ( @ OAK )
5 - Rob Bironas - TEN ( DEN )
6 - Jeff Reed - PIT ( BAL )
7 - David Akers - PHI ( WAS )
8 - Robbie Gould - CHI ( @ NYG )
9 - Matt Bryant - ATL ( SF )
10 - Mike Nugent - CIN ( @ CLE )
11 - Nick Folk - NYJ ( @ BUF )
12 - Matt Prater - DEN ( @ TEN )
13 - Sebastian Janikowski - OAK ( HOU )
14 - Adam Vinatieri - IND ( @ JAC )
15 - Graham Gano - WAS ( @ PHI )
16 - Dan Carpenter - MIA ( NE )
17 - Lawrence Tynes - NYG ( CHI )
18 - Jay Feely - ARZ ( @ SD )
19 - Billy Cundiff - BAL ( @ PIT )
20 - Jason Hanson - DET ( @ GB )
21 - Josh Brown - STL ( SEA )
22 - Garrett Hartley - NO ( CAR )
23 - Olindo Mare - SEA ( @ STL )
24 - Josh Scobee - JAC ( IND )
25 - John Kasay - CAR ( @ NO )
Defense
Rank - Team ( Opp )
1 - Packers ( DET )
2 - Jets ( @ BUF )
3 - Steelers ( BAL )
4 - Ravens ( @ PIT )
5 - Saints ( CAR )
6 - Bengals ( @ CLE )
7 - Eagles ( WAS )
8 - Chargers ( ARZ )
9 - Falcons ( SF )
10 - Colts ( @ JAC )
11 - Titans ( DEN )
12 - Giants ( CHI )
13 - Bears ( @ NYG )
14 - Patriots ( @ MIA )
15 - Seahawks ( @ STL )
16 - Texans ( @ OAK )
17 - 49ers ( @ ATL )
18 - Redskins ( @ PHI )
19 - Dolphins ( NE )
20 - Cardinals ( @ SD )
21 - Broncos ( @ TEN )
22 - Rams ( SEA )
23 - Raiders ( HOU )
24 - Browns ( CIN )
25 - Bills ( NYJ )
Labels: All in Sports Fantasy Advice Week 4 - Football Breakdown and Rankings
