Thursday, October 29, 2009

So I am going to start my new format for my blog this week. I’m following my old show/article format, which I think (hope) you enjoy.

From my blog’s title and references in the article, you can see I am quite the poker fan. That is where I got my idea for the title and even my nickname (All in Kid). Maybe I’ll explain where the nickname came from at some point.

Name aside, fantasy sports are much like poker. There is skill involved, you can put in work to get better, and can be rewarded for it. At the same time, both involve some luck. To be honest, I think there is less luck in poker. You face actual card values in poker, while in fantasy sports those values can change.

You can go into a week with your “pocket aces” (Hines Ward and Andre Johnson) and expect to win handily. Only this week, an eight and a five (Miles Austin and Vernon Davis) crack your aces and your spirit.

We all hate being on the “aces” side of the match-up. Such is the life of fantasy sports and even poker. I think that’s what makes both games so enjoyable, frustrating, rewarding, and disappointing at the same time. And you know what? I wouldn’t change it for a Royal Flush.

Now, here is my breakdown of last week’s highlights and this week’s predictions and rankings. Here’s hoping for your big hand.

Week 7

Ace in the Hole (player who guaranteed a good week)

Cedric Benson

I was high on Benson, especially given the extra incentive to perform well against the team who spurned him. Although, I don’t think anyone expected this type of performance. Career record for yards and a TD? Congrats Cedric! I bet the Bears would be much happier with you in the backfield than Forte this year.

River Rat (player who came out of nowhere to help or ruin you)

Shonn Greene/Miles Austin

I am listing Austin along with Greene. Obviously, Greene was the bigger surprise. However, I don’t think anyone had him on his roster, let alone in the starting lineup. If you did…all I have to say is go buy a lottery ticket!

As for Austin, I think everyone had his doubts on how good he is/can be. What a follow up performance to his 250-yard, 2-touchdown day. 421 yards and 4 touchdowns in two weeks…um, yes please! I am still not ready to vault him into the overall top 10 for WRs. However, I do have him there for week 8.

The Turn (player who showed significant improvement)

Tony Romo

Another Cowboy on the list. In this case, I expected another solid performance similar to his previous game. Note to QBs facing the Falcons this year – start them almost at will. Not that Romo isn’t a good QB in his own. But, Atlanta has lost both starting DBs and can be passed on almost as much as Tennessee.

The Flop (player who let you down)

Hines Ward

Wow. The leader in receiving yards coming into week 7 catches 1 ball for 3 yards? I had him ranked 11th against a Minnesota team who among the worst in pass defense. This just goes to show you cannot guarantee anything week to week.

Week 8

Ace in the Hole (player who guarantees a good week)

Kevin Smith

I am going to try and avoid the obvious names (Brees, AP) each week. That said, Kevin Smith should have a big week. The Rams rank among the worst in run defense. Plus, with questions surrounding Calvin Johnson’s health, I expect them to focus on the run quite a bit this week.

River Rat (player who will come out of nowhere to help or ruin you)

Marc Bulger

This may be the toughest player to predict each week, but with great risk comes great reward…err, right? I’m not saying he’s going to light it up like Peyton, but he has a nice match-up against a weak pass defense in Detroit (30th in pass D). Bulger also looks healthier than he has in a while. There are safer bye week QB fill-ins, but he has potential for a big week.

The Turn (player who will show significant improvement)

Marshawn Lynch/LaDanian Tomlinson

Lynch is finally getting in to full playing condition and has been nearing 20 touches each week. He is facing the worst run defense for touchdowns (Houston). Expect a solid game and for people to start thinking of him as a top 15 RB again.

As for LDT, this is my last hurrah for him. I have been backing this horse all season. He faces a divisional opponent who he regularly does well against (Oakland). Plus, the Raiders are among the worst in run defense (see what the Jets did?). If he doesn’t perform this week, you will see me finally jump off his wagon.

The Flop (player who will let you down)

Desean Jackson

Before you get mad, I am not saying he’s going to stink (I still have him ranked #15). Fact is, he is coming off a huge week and expectations will be high. However, the Redskins are awful, and McNabb looked a bit off. He’ll get you a few catches, but don’t count on another huge game (could even see him finish outside the top 15). The Giants still have one of the better pass defenses in the game. They’ve held guys like Fitzgerald in check, while having teams’ TEs be the leading receiver most weeks (subtle hint at another possible River Rat there).

Enjoy week 8, don’t get upset when you get sucked out on by an “eight and a five”, and don’t splash the pot!

Rankings:

Rank QB - Team ( Opp )
1 Peyton Manning - IND ( SF )
2 Drew Brees - NO ( Atl )
3 Matt Schaub - HOU ( @Buf )
4 Aaron Rodgers - GB ( Min )
5 Philip Rivers - SD ( Oak )
6 Jay Cutler - CHI ( Cle )
7 Tony Romo - DAL ( Sea )
8 Kurt Warner - ARI ( Car )
9 Brett Favre - MIN ( @GB )
10 David Garrard - JAC ( @Ten )
11 Joe Flacco - BAL ( Den )
12 Matt Ryan - ATL ( @NO )
13 Donovan McNabb - PHI ( NYG )
14 Kyle Orton - DEN ( @Bal )
15 Matt Hasselbeck - SEA ( @Dal )
16 Eli Manning - NYG ( @Phi )
17 Marc Bulger - STL ( @Det )
18 Chad Henne - MIA ( @NYJ )
19 Alex Smith - SF ( @Ind )
20 Daunte Culpepper - DET ( StL )
21 Mark Sanchez - NYJ ( Mia )
22 Jake Delhomme - CAR ( @Ari )
23 Ryan Fitzpatrick - BUF ( Hou )
24 Derek Anderson - CLE ( @Chi )
25 Vince Young - TEN ( Jac )

Rank RB - Team ( Opp )
1 Adrian Peterson - MIN ( @GB )
2 Maurice Jones-Drew - JAC ( @Ten )
3 Steven Jackson - STL ( @Det )
4 Steve Slaton - HOU ( @Buf )
5 Chris Johnson - TEN ( Jac )
6 Ronnie Brown - MIA ( @NYJ )
7 Ray Rice - BAL ( Den )
8 DeAngelo Williams - CAR ( @Ari )
9 Michael Turner - ATL ( @NO )
10 Thomas Jones - NYJ ( Mia )
11 Matt Forte - CHI ( Cle )
12 Kevin Smith - DET ( StL )
13 LaDainian Tomlinson - SD ( Oak )
14 Frank Gore - SF ( @Ind )
15 Marion Barber - DAL ( Sea )
16 Marshawn Lynch - BUF (Hou)
17 Brandon Jacobs - NYG ( @Phi )
18 Joseph Addai - IND (SF )
19 Ryan Grant - GB ( Min )
20 Pierre Thomas - NO ( Atl )
21 Ricky Williams - MIA ( @NYJ )
22 Knowshon Moreno - DEN ( @Bal )
23 Beanie Wells - ARI ( Car )
24 LeSean McCoy - PHI ( NYG )
25 Ahmad Bradshaw - NYG ( @Phi )
26 Mike Bell - NO ( Atl )
27 Darren Sproles - SD ( Oak )
28 Tim Hightower - ARI ( Car )
29 Justin Fargas - OAK ( @SD )
30 Jonathan Stewart - CAR ( @Ari )
31 Felix Jones - DAL ( Sea )
32 Jamal Lewis - CLE ( @Chi )
33 Reggie Bush - NO ( Atl )
34 Julius Jones - SEA ( @Dal )
35 Correll Buckhalter - DEN ( @Bal )
36 Shonn Greene - NYJ ( Mia )
37 Willis McGahee - BAL ( Den )
38 Fred Jackson - BUF ( Hou )
39 Michael Bush - OAK ( @SD )
40 Tashard Choice - DAL ( Sea )
41 Donald Brown - IND ( SF )
42 Jason Snelling - ATL ( @NO )
43 LenDale White - TEN ( Jac )
44 Jerome Harrison - CLE ( @Chi )
45 Chester Taylor - MIN ( @GB )

Rank WR - Team ( Opp )
1 Reggie Wayne - IND ( SF )
2 Larry Fitzgerald - ARI ( Car )
3 Marques Colston - NO ( Atl )
4 Vincent Jackson - SD ( Oak )
5 Andre Johnson - HOU ( @Buf )
6 Roddy White - ATL ( @NO )
7 Mike Sims-Walker - JAC ( @Ten )
8 Miles Austin - DAL ( Sea )
9 Brandon Marshall - DEN ( @Bal )
10 Calvin Johnson - DET ( StL )
11 Donald Driver - GB ( Min )
12 Sidney Rice - MIN ( @GB )
13 Greg Jennings - GB ( Min )
14 T.J. Houshmandzadeh - SEA ( @Dal )
15 DeSean Jackson - PHI ( NYG )
16 Devin Hester - CHI ( Cle )
17 Anquan Boldin - ARI ( Car )
18 Steve Smith - NYG ( @Phi )
19 Steve Smith - CAR ( @Ari )
20 Nate Burleson - SEA ( @Dal )
21 Derrick Mason - BAL ( Den )
22 Lee Evans - BUF ( Hou )
23 Braylon Edwards - NYJ ( Mia )
24 Hakeem Nicks - NYG ( @Phi )
25 Steve Breaston - ARI ( Car )
26 Austin Collie - IND ( SF )
27 Mario Manningham - NYG ( @Phi )
28 Torry Holt - JAC ( @Ten )
29 Donnie Avery - STL ( @Det )
30 Johnny Knox - CHI ( Cle )
31 Percy Harvin - MIN ( @GB )
32 Kevin Walter - HOU ( @Buf )
33 Michael Crabtree - SF ( @Ind )
34 Mohamed Massaquoi - CLE ( @Chi )
35 Jeremy Maclin - PHI ( NYG )
36 Nate Washington - TEN ( Jac )
37 Devery Henderson - NO ( Atl )
38 Eddie Royal - DEN ( @Bal )
39 Pierre Garcon - IND ( SF )
40 Lance Moore - NO ( Atl )
41 Terrell Owens - BUF ( Hou )
42 Kenny Britt - TEN ( Jac )
43 Earl Bennett - CHI ( Cle )
44 Roy Williams - DAL ( Sea )
45 Bernard Berrian - MIN ( @GB )

Rank TE - Team ( Opp )
1 Dallas Clark - IND ( SF )
2 Antonio Gates - SD ( Oak )
3 Owen Daniels - HOU ( @Buf )
4 Tony Gonzalez - ATL ( @NO )
5 Jason Witten - DAL ( Sea )
6 Vernon Davis - SF ( @Ind )
7 Jeremy Shockey - NO ( Atl )
8 Brent Celek - PHI ( NYG )
9 Greg Olsen - CHI ( Cle )
10 Visanthe Shiancoe - MIN ( @GB )
11 Zach Miller - OAK ( @SD )
12 John Carlson - SEA ( @Dal )
13 Todd Heap - BAL ( Den )
14 Marcedes Lewis - JAC ( @Ten )
15 Tony Scheffler - DEN ( @Bal )
16 Dustin Keller - NYJ ( Mia )
17 Donald Lee - GB ( Min )
18 Randy McMichael - STL ( @Det )
19 Kevin Boss - NYG ( @Phi )
20 Brandon Pettigrew - DET ( StL )

Rank Def ( Opp )
1 San Diego Chargers ( Oak )
2 Chicago Bears ( Cle )
3 Arizona Cardinals ( Car )
4 Indianapolis Colts ( SF )
5 Dallas Cowboys ( Sea )
6 Minnesota Vikings ( @GB )
7 Philadelphia Eagles ( NYG )
8 New Orleans Saints ( Atl )
9 New York Giants ( @Phi )
10 New York Jets ( Mia )
11 Baltimore Ravens ( Den )
12 Denver Broncos ( @Bal )
13 Houston Texans ( @Buf )
14 Green Bay Packers ( Min )
15 Miami Dolphins ( @NYJ )
16 Jacksonville Jaguars ( @Ten )
17 Buffalo Bills ( Hou )
18 Atlanta Falcons ( @NO )
19 Seattle Seahawks ( @Dal )
20 St. Louis Rams ( @Det )

Rank Kicker - Team ( Opp )
1 Nate Kaeding - SD ( Oak )
2 Mason Crosby - GB ( Min )
3 John Carney - NO ( Atl )
4 Lawrence Tynes - NYG ( @Phi )
5 Nick Folk - DAL ( Sea )
6 Ryan Longwell - MIN ( @GB )
7 Josh Scobee - JAC ( @Ten )
8 David Akers - PHI ( NYG )
9 Rob Bironas - TEN ( Jac )
10 Robbie Gould - CHI ( Cle )
11 Matt Prater - DEN ( @Bal )
12 Matt Stover - IND ( SF )
13 Neil Rackers - ARI ( Car )
14 Jason Hanson - DET ( StL )
15 Jason Elam - ATL ( @NO )
16 Jay Feely - NYJ ( Mia )
17 Steven Hauschka - BAL ( Den )
18 Rian Lindell - BUF ( Hou )
19 Josh Brown - STL ( @Det )
20 Dan Carpenter - MIA ( @NYJ )

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